The Communist Junta; The Fed must throw in the inflation towel forever

This isn’t 1980; that ship has sailed

A pending Communist junta takeover in the United States that is spooking investors, a stupid Fed that pretends this is 1980, and a more stupid BOJ that is trying to keep up with a stupid Fed are all working together to blow up the entire financial system.

Communist junta governments are very expensive and inefficient. This US communist junta government cannot keep financing its spending with 5.25% money, despite what the Marxist minded Janet Yellen thinks.

The Fed needs to immediately begin adding to its balance sheet once again, while slashing overnight rates. That’s the only answer now. Moreover, the dollar is too strong for the BOJ. Fed policy must work to bring the USDX down to the 2021 levels of the mid 90s and it must admit its inflation fight is done forever.

The Fed needs to stop pretending

The Fed needs to accept 3-4% inflation as the new normal and cut out their willful ignorance.

Inflation needs to rage and will rage and the Fed needs to monetize debt on a scale comparable to COVID stimulus. The communist junta running the Federal government has totally sucked the liquidity out with its communist government spending.

I have had enough of the talmudists like Schumer and Yellen gaslighting the people into believing that their fiscal policies are acceptable.

The upshot of running a Communist junta dictatorship is that the government can pass along inflation with impunity. Communism needs to come out of the closet and be proud.

The Inflation Reduction Act is the biggest misnomer since the Patriot Act. Let the plebes continue venting their frustrations over the rising costs of living on social media and YouTube.  Let the corporate media divert the attention of the proles over trivialities. The people have no say in a communist junta dictatorship, so the Fed and UST should stop pretending. Let inflation rage!

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29 thoughts on “The Communist Junta; The Fed must throw in the inflation towel forever

  1. Mortgage rates heading lower? The Fed needs to be careful as lower bond yields and open borders keeps upward pressure on housing costs and rents.

  2. Joel Skousen claims to be the most knowledgeable person regarding the conspiracy, but he has seemed bewildered and nonplussed with Harris’s rise to fame, only able to spit out a kosher version. I think he spends too much time isolated in his LDS bunker, confused about the Bible and concentrating on LDS prophets for a crutch. Time has passed him on.

    But virtually all churchgoers are now in the dark and refer to extrabiblical prophets.

    As grim as it sounds, we need to be ready to carry on after the USA loses in WWIII.

  3. Another benefit of profligate fiscal deficit spending. Sports rights deals explode in value. Sports team owners make a killing. Own the assets….

    UFC poised for even bigger TV contract after NBA inks massive 11-year, $77 billion deal

    https://www.mmafighting.com/2024/8/6/24213933/ufc-poised-for-even-bigger-tv-contract-after-nba-inks-massive-11-year-77-billion-deal

    When UFC inks a new broadcast deal sometime in 2025, the owners at TKO Group Holdings may want to send a thank you card to NBA commissioner Adam Silver.

    In July, the NBA officially close deals spanning 11 years and $77 billion for basketball games to be broadcast on NBC, ESPN/ABC, and Amazon Prime Video for more than a decade starting in 2025. The landmark deals were massive upgrades from the previous broadcast rights deals for the NBA, but also take the league off the market for the next 11 years.

    Meanwhile, the NFL — by far the most valuable sports league in the United States — has a deal running through 2033, the college football playoffs are locked up until 2032, and the MLB and NHL don’t have new deals coming until after 2028.

  4. JPMorgan Says Three Quarters of Global Carry Trades Now Unwound

    (Bloomberg) — Three-quarters of the global carry trade has now been removed, with a recent selloff erasing this year’s gains, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

    Returns in Group-of-10, emerging market and global carry trade baskets tracked by the bank have fallen about 10% since May, quantitative strategists Antonin Delair, Meera Chandan and Kunj Padh wrote in a note to clients. The moves have wiped out the year-to-date returns and significantly cut into profits accumulated since the end of 2022.

    “The spot component of the global carry basket would suggest that 75% of carry trades have been removed,” the JPMorgan team wrote, re-iterating that the “clock is ticking for the G10 carry.”

    The carry strategy – which involves borrowing at low rates to fund purchases in higher-yielding assets elsewhere — has been wobbling for months. Carry trades were pummeled over the past week as global market volatility jumped amid fears of rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts and after the Bank of Japan’s larger than expected rate hike.

    The recent selloff has been double the usual pace in a carry drawdown, with the strategists suggesting there may be small opportunity for a rebound in August as “the central bank calendar is light for this period and volatility already started to cool off.”

    However, the global carry trade strategy is “not offering an attractive risk-reward,” they emphasized. “The yield on the basket has plummeted since the highs of 2023 and is not a sufficient compensation for holding EM high betas through US elections and the risk of further repricing of low yielders if US yields fall.”

  5. Some recession… The Atlanta Fed GDP estimate rose 0.3% since its last forecast estimate. It’s on tap to come out with a new estimate later today.

    GDP Now – Latest estimate: 2.9 percent — August 06, 2024

    The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2024 is 2.9 percent on August 6, up from 2.5 percent on August 1. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic growth increased from 2.6 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, to 3.0 percent and 2.8 percent.

  6. Here’s an email I sent to Swanson Vitamins customer care. Their advertisements are full of laughing black people, like it’s so fun to be black. I observe the same thing regarding Kamela Harris’s photos. Her photos show her laughing all the time, like it’s fun to be her friend while Trump’s photos show him grimacing in anger. This is a highly effective demoralization campaign and the religious Judeo-Christian churchgoers call out people like me as racist. Believe me, the blacks aren’t your friends as they tend to hate Caucasians, blame them for all their problems, and vote 90% communist across the board. I know this first hand.
    _____________

    Dear customer care,
    If I were to look at your advertisements and base the demographics off of the advertisements on your websites and marketing pieces, I would reckon the population was about 90% black.

    You’re just as woke now as every other firm. You no longer show many white people in your advertisements. Perhaps this is to garner better financing and superior manufacturing terms, so you can pass the lower prices along to the customers. I’m well aware of how the bankers, publicly traded firms, and advertisement placement firms like Google, try to convince companies to market a certain way. Of course, this means that you are to be anti-Caucasian with your advertisements and marketing pieces. All I see are laughing black people in all ads.

    Believe me, I’m not the only Caucasian person to notice. I talk to others who say the same thing.

    If I were to guess, I would assume 90% of your revenue comes from white people. But that doesn’t matter anymore in a woke world where everything is upside down.

    I start wondering about the quality of your products. Perhaps firms like yours will cut corners to save a few bucks. Your advertising and marketing is not generating any confidence anymore. Perhaps you’re just selling trash with your private labels.

  7. Bonds are having a shit day. Why? A 4% yield on long dated paper is garbage. We have Marxists and Communists taking over in the states and fixing elections. Why would anyone want to hold on to UST paper in any form? Especially if the 10-year treasury is yielding 4%?

    The only way the FED could bring down bond yields is to start adding massive quantities of Treasuries to its balance sheet. A crappy Treasury auction today is indicating some ominous signs. Investors have been increasingly getting tired
    of subsidizing government malfeasance, lying, and profligate spending.

    This isn’t my opinion. Rather, this is what the market is indicating. I thought inflation was getting close to 2%. Why is the yield curve stagnating?

  8. For those who read my blog, I think you know whom Daniel is referring to. Notice how the synagogue demands that we worship the schvartze and mixed breeds. What a curse it is on society, and if you don’t think so, take a look out your window. Let me know how it’s going. This is the same synagogue of Satan that tells us to worship the nation state of Israel and the jews. How is that going?

    Which person does the synagogue media cudgel to death? Why does the synagogue want us all mixing it up? The Bible forbids this and demonstrates how societies collapse when the people do.

    Prophecy passes through these holy people. It’s set in stone from the beginning of when Adamic man appeared down through Shem and then Jacob. It’s interesting how Cain took a non-adamic woman as a wife and built a city with a big population. Hmm… He even named this city after his mixed breed son, Enoch. I find that interesting. He went East. Who lived east of Eden? It wasn’t Adamic man and it wasn’t a bunch of fallen angels. Would the fallen angels let Cain rule over them? Of course, not. Only a bunch of dim-witted human forms would allow that.

    Daniel 12:7 KJV
    And I heard the man clothed in linen, which was upon the waters of the river, when he held up his right hand and his left hand unto heaven, and sware by him that liveth for ever that it shall be for a time, times, and an half; and when he shall have accomplished to scatter the power of the holy people, all these things shall be finished.

    1. It’s wonderful being unshackled by political correctness and not having to concern myself with others for a living and such. If I were concerned with paid subscribers and mouse clicks I would have to tow the line like the rest of the synagogue worshipers in the alt media.

      The Bible is a very easy book to understand once one comes to this level of comprehension. I feel sorry for the religious people in the tax exempt churches. They are meant to be kept in the dark. The prophet Hosea said so.

  9. The BOJ listened to the markets and backtracked. When the Fed finally lowers rates, the rest of the central banks will follow….

    Japan got so spooked by Monday’s market meltdown that it’s now playing cool on more interest-rate hikes

    •The Japanese market saw its worst day in decades on Monday.
    •Stocks are rising after Monday’s meltdown as Japan assured it will not hike rates if markets are unstable.
    •Some analysts say BOJ’s recent rate hike triggered Monday’s sell-off as traders unwind yen carry trades.
    •The uncertainty in carry trades could complicate Fed interest rate decisions. Rapid cuts could unravel more carry trades.

    Japan’s central bank has capitulated to the markets.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/market-crash-japan-central-bank-boj-cools-interest-rate-hike-2024-8?amp

    Just last week, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates and struck a hawkish stance that signaled more increases ahead following years of ultra-low and even negative rates.

    The move, along with investors’ concerns about tech and other macro themes, sent global stock markets tumbling on Monday.

    On Wednesday, Shinichi Uchida, a deputy governor at the Bank of Japan, said the central would not hike interest rates when the financial and capital markets are unstable.

    “I believe that the Bank needs to maintain monetary easing with the current policy interest rate for the time being, with developments in financial and capital markets at home and abroad being extremely volatile,” said Uchida at a local event in Hokkaido.

    The comments were “a strong dovish signal” that played down the chances of near-term rate hikes amid such volatile markets, wrote Jim Reid, a strategist at Deutsche Bank, on Wednesday.

    Uchida’s statement came after Monday’s massive meltdown in the global stock market that some analysts blamed on the Japanese central bank’s rate hike last week that unraveled yen carry trades.

    This tipped global markets over the edge amid existing concerns over the US economy, cooling enthusiasm for AI, and geopolitical concerns.

    It’s not the first time Japanese officials have sought to calm the market turmoil that sent the Nikkei to its worst one-day percentage loss since Black Monday in 1987.

    On Tuesday, Japanese officials from its finance ministry, financial regulator, and BOJ met to discuss the massive sell-off. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida himself urged calm.

    Uchida’s dovish signal on Tuesday boosted Asian shares.

    On Wednesday, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index jumped as much as 4%, to close 1.2% higher. Since its rebound on Tuesday, it has regained most of its losses from Monday. Meanwhile, the yen lost over 2% against the US dollar.

    South Korea’s Kospi closed 1.8% up, while Taiwan’s Taiex closed nearly 4% higher.

    Australia’s ASX 200 closed 0.3% higher.

    Yen carry trade risks remain
    Despite the BOJ cooling attitude on rate hikes — at least for now — there are still risks associated with the yen carry trade, which could further unwind if the Fed cuts rates rapidly.

    The trading strategy involves borrowing cheaply in Japan’s ultra-low interest rate environment and using the funds to invest in higher-yielding, such as US tech stocks, elsewhere.

    Nobody seems to know how much carry trade is at stake.

    As Macquarie’s analysts wrote in a Tuesday note. “We do not profess to have all of the answers as to the breadth and depth of the unwind of the yen carry trade.”

    Bloomberg estimates there could be trillions at stake, pointing to potential complications. A JPMorgan strategist has said that the carry trade unwind is only half done.

    It could complicate the the Fed’s interest rate decisions. The US central bank recently signaled that it could start cutting rates as soon as September.

    “The natural reaction from the Fed to soft labor market data and fresh recession risks would be to cut rates and to do so relatively rapidly. But this would exacerbate any carry trade unwind,” wrote analysts at GlobalData.TS Lombard in a Monday note.

  10. As the article points out, the only reason why the RRP facility isn’t completely drained is because the Fed has kept the overnight rates at a high level. Goodbye liquidity after that….

    Fed’s Reverse Repo Facility Usage Sinks Below $300 Billion

    The Federal Reserve in June started shrinking its balance sheet at a slower pace, reducing the amount of Treasuries it lets roll off every month.

    (Bloomberg) — The amount of money investors park at a major Federal Reserve facility dropped below $300 billion for the first time since 2021.

    Sixty participants on Tuesday put a combined $292 billion at the Fed’s overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility, which is used by banks, government sponsored enterprises and money-market mutual funds to earn interest. It marks a steep decline from a record $2.554 trillion stashed on Dec. 30, 2022, according to New York Fed data.

    Market participants are closely watching the pace at which the facility, known as the RRP, empties. Some on Wall Street warn the draining facility is evidence that excess liquidity has been removed from the financial system and bank reserve balances are less abundant than policymakers believe.

    The central bank in June started shrinking its balance sheet at a slower pace, reducing the amount of Treasuries it lets roll off every month and therefore easing a potential strain on money-market rates.

    JPMorgan strategists led by Teresa Ho said last month officials can keep shrinking the balance sheet through the end of the year, forecasting the amount at the RRP slightly below $300 billion and reserves at $3.1 trillion.

    From the time the government suspended the debt ceiling in June 2023 until April of this year, demand for the Fed’s facility dropped by about $1.8 trillion, driven by a deluge of bill supply. At that point, Wall Street strategists expected the RRP to be completely emptied in the first half of 2024.

    Instead, usage largely stabilized as bill issuance fell and uncertainty about the timing of interest-rate cuts kept cash parked at the RRP. But balances at the facility have been trending lower since the second half of July.

    “The trajectory of RRP has shifted around quite significantly over the past year depending on bill supply and the pace of inflows into money market funds,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US interest rate strategy at TD Securities. “At the old pace, it looked like RRP was on a mission to hit zero quickly, but then we saw usage stabilize before slipping more gradually now.”

  11. US Home Price Insights – August 2024
    August 6, 2024

    Through June 2024 With Forecasts Through June 2025

    Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 4.7% in June 2024 compared with June 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices grew by 0.3% in June 2024 compared with May 2024

    Forecast Prices Nationally
    The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will rise by 0.3% from June 2024 to July 2024 and increase by 2.3% on a year-over-year basis from June 2024 to June 2025.

    https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/us-home-price-insights-august-2024/

  12. I always enjoy your blog/work. With the Communist Junta (as you call them) looking to expand the balance sheet, will we see a precipitice fall in interest rates? One CNBC talking head said we will see a 3% Fed Rate by the spring of ’25. However, with war on the horizon (war is inflationary) another head says the Fed Rate will be 6.25% by 2026. What are your thoughts? Further, I am not convinced what we will see, heading into the Tribulation, will be a Communist Junta, rather, Facsist Fudelism in all its totalitarianism will oppresively reign. What do you think?
    Thanks for the great work you do – causing me to think laterally.
    Gary.

    1. The only way we can see a 3% Fed funds rate is if the Fed somehow engineered a QE type of mechanism again and developed a program to control more of the Treasury debt and add to its balance sheet. As the FED funds rate drops, the attractiveness of shorter-term treasury debt declines. It’s nice having a money market fund yielding at least 5%. I won’t bother parking any money in a money market fund if it’s yielding only 3% or less. Thus I ask, how will the federal government continue financing its deficit spending with interest rates falling? The only way will be for the FED to somehow add to its balance sheet.

      You are correct also with war spending. The false flag operation that started it all in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas, has continued to escalate and spread. Of course, we predicted this as these false flags are not random in nature but serve a specific purpose. Now we’re seeing instances where Iran and the United States are somehow becoming entangled directly. This will continue to spread and the amount of money spent on War and the military in preparation for WW3 will spiral upwards.

      I suspect that much of this spending will come from diverted domestic spending. Either way we slice it, I just don’t see how the fiscal deficits can drop. I submit that the debt will continue to escalate up until the United States is under direct attack domestically.

      As for the phrase “communist junta”, I sort of use it tongue in cheek. By the time World War 3 begins, the US will be under some sort of defacto dictatorship. It won’t be a true Soviet Union type per se as we’ll still be able to own real estate and have a modicum of private property ownership, but as we can see with the democrats, there will be less and less freedom until we get to the point where the president will be the leader, imposing his or her will unilaterally.

      I think we can agree that it will be a cultural Marxist state. Of course, whoever appears as the leader, and I predict it will be Harris, he or she will not really have any discretion or power. Rather, any domestic dictator will be managed by an oligopoly. It will be military in nature, since the DoD Pentagon already operates much of the levers of power here in the United States. Thus, it will be a junta. Whether it’s considered communist or fascist is academic.

      This time around with the markets fading off of extreme overbought conditions is different. It comes during a time of growing uncertainty and bewilderment in the presidential election cycle. I suspect there are some investors who are concerned of a de facto dictatorship forming domestically. This can mean that there is a likelihood of future capital controls and or asset repatriation or confiscation. But typical excuses given by a tyrannical government is usually Marxist in nature. Those who oppose any sort of tyranny could also be seen as being seditious.

      There are also a growing number of investors who are trying to add up the numbers with the fiscal deficit spending and are coming to some similar conclusions that I am making. In essence, how is the Federal government going to continue financing itself as interest rates and bond yields continue to fall? As Bernanke has repeatedly said, the US and Fed will be just like Japan and the BOJ and the BOJs balance sheet.

      This is why I no longer recommend us Treasuries other than for speculation. I’ve recommended short-term Treasuries under a year in duration for the yield and if yields drop to as low as 3% for Treasury paper, I say forget about it. In essence, Treasury holders will continue subsidizing the true cost of borrowing.

      Theoretically, the FED could drop the Federal funds rate down to below 2%, if it chose. It just depends on how much Treasury debt it wants to control. Unfortunately, the lower yields move, the higher M2 velocity will rise as less people will desire to hold on to the currency they possess. Money market assets will drop through the floor. How can the FED sterilize all that cash? Will it develop mechanisms with the large money center banks? I don’t yet know.

  13. A Bloomberg news story this morning about the monkey pox bioweapon….

    A mutated strain of the virus that causes mpox has been detected in at least six African countries, and fears are mounting that the cases could be but the beginnings of a continent-wide outbreak of the disease.

    The new variant may have infected more than 12,300 people and killed almost 500 since the start of the year in the Democratic Republic of the Congo alone.

    Recent cases in Ivory Coast, Kenya and other countries have raised concern of an explosive contagion carried along newly built roads and highways connecting remote mining sites to cities and camps housing hundreds of thousands of conflict-displaced Congolese.

    Mpox is caused by the monkeypox virus and has been spilling over from rodents and infecting humans with increasing frequency for decades. But the current spread is being driven by a variant that’s undergone genetic changes that scientists worry might have made it more infectious and dangerous.

    “The uninterrupted human-to-human transmission for at least the last eight months, possibly more, has never been seen in mpox spread in the region before,” says Sylvie Jonckheere, an adviser on emerging infectious diseases at aid group MSF, or Doctors Without Borders.

    World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus is considering declaring the outbreak a public-health emergency of international concern.

    While mpox vaccines are available, few have made their way to Africa — the only continent where the disease is endemic.

    “We can only plead, like so many others, for the vaccines to arrive in the country as quickly as possible and in large quantities,” says Louis Albert Massing, MSF’s medical coordinator in Congo.

    1. Maybe monkeypox vaccine mandates will be forthcoming. Boston had an outbreak of monkeypox in 2021 until they rolled out the mpox vaccine. Then the number of new cases suddenly dropped off to make it look like the vaccine actually worked(not!)

      1. By the WHOs own admission, monkeypox is nearly exclusively found and spread among homosexuals.

        Displaced congolese in a refugee camp with nothing else to do but spread monkeypox among each other. Yeah, Ew.

  14. Here are the odds of an emergency rate cut from the Federal Reserve
    CBS News
    3 hours ago

    The three-day stock market rout roiling Wall Street is prompting some experts to question whether the Federal Reserve could enact an emergency rate cut before its September meeting.

    The speculation is arising in the wake of the Fed’s July 31 meeting, when the central bank decided to keep its benchmark rate steady at its highest point in 23 years. At a press conference that day, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said while he and other officials were carefully watching the labor market for signs of weakness, they wanted to see more evidence that inflation was cooling before cutting rates.

    But on August 2, the monthly jobs report came in much weaker than expected, sparking fears that the U.S. economy may be fraying under the weight of high borrowing costs and that the Fed has waited too long to cut rates. A few other weak economic reports have added fuel to those worries about the economy, igniting a three-day rout that’s caused the S&P 500 to shed 6% of its value since July 31.

    Given the dim economic data, some analysts and investors said they believe the Fed should undertake an emergency cut before their next rate decision, scheduled for September 18.

    “Some analysts are even suggesting an intra-meeting emergency cut is warranted,” noted Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, in an email.

    What are the odds of a Fed emergency rate cut?

    Traders are signaling a roughly 60% likelihood of an emergency 0.25 percentage point cut within one week, according to Bloomberg News.

    But some experts said they believe the odds are much lower, with Pantheon Macroeconomics noting that overnight index swap rates implied that investors on Monday saw a roughly 30% chance the Fed could make an emergency cut in the next week.

    Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday told CNBC that if there’s more deterioration in economic conditions, “we’re going to fix it.” But he added that even though the jobs numbers were weaker than expected, he doesn’t believe the U.S. is in a recession.

    What is the history of Fed emergency rate cuts?

    The Fed has cut rates at nine emergency meetings in the last 30 years, which means an intra-meeting cut before September “would not be unprecedented,” Pantheon noted.

    The last emergency rate cut was in March 2020, when the economy was free-falling due to the coronavirus pandemic, which shuttered businesses across the globe.

    “Intra-meeting cuts have typically only happened in the event of financial crisis,” Shah noted.

    That was echoed by Pantheon, which noted that “economic and market conditions usually have been worse than now to trigger an emergency Fed meeting.”

    Do economists see an emergency rate cut as likely?

    While the markets are pricing in the chance of a rate cut, many economists believe the Fed is likely to wait until its September meeting to start easing borrowing costs, partly as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average remain in positive territory despite the three-day rout.

    “We think [Powell] will opt to wait until September, provided markets stabilize,” Pantheon’s economists wrote in a research note. “The Fed probably will place little weight on the drop in stock prices, as the main indexes still are higher than at the start of the year.”

    And cutting rates in an emergency meeting might undermine confidence in the economy, Amanda Agati, chief investment officer of PNC’s asset management group, told CBS MoneyWatch.

    “From our perspective, this isn’t the environment when you want to hastily throw a rate cut out there,” Agati said. An emergency cut could do “more damage than it helps because then the everyone will say, ‘What does the Fed know that we don’t?'”

    1. ZeroHedge has accurately predicted 10 of the last two market tops. ZH is a highly effective demoralization propaganda outlet and blog writers like Joel skousen refer to its news several times a day. I’m curious to know why it never criticizes Russia nor Vladimir Putin? Interesting.

  15. I think Wall Street is pushing for lower interest rates and that is why they are crashing stock prices these last few days. They are telling the Fed to cut interest rates. The federal reserve will oblige and cut interest rates when Wall Street wants it. That said, this will light a match under inflation and send asset prices through the roof.

    1. Since the 6/30 13F filing, Buffett has probably sold off another huge chunk of his AAPL holding. He was out pumping while he has been dumping. AAPL is still trading higher than his sales prices.

    2. Communists will do anything to get power and keep the power. If an extraterrestrial alien invasion will help maintain their power then it will happen.

      Once communists get elected they never get unelected. Just look at Venezuela as an example.

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