Why wait for war in Taiwan to force a global reordering?
- Tariffs are an attempt by Trump to reorder the global economy away from China manufacturing.
- Taiwan and TSMC are at the heart of the current system of interconnected, global supply chains.
- Ben Thompson warns that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would make last week look tame.
In a world already shaken by economic shocks — from the pandemic to sweeping tariffs — there’s one scenario that would dwarf them all: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
This is the hypothetical Ben Thompson floats in the latest edition of Stratechery, a newsletter widely followed by tech industry insiders.
An invasion wouldn’t just be a military conflict; it would be a systemic rupture in the global economic order that underpins everything from iPhones to inflation forecasts.
Thompson reckons China would prevail militarily. The larger story isn’t about who controls Taipei — it’s about what happens when the world’s most essential supply chains are shattered. Taiwan isn’t just any island; it’s home to TSMC, the company responsible for manufacturing the most advanced semiconductors on Earth. Take that away, and the modern tech ecosystem buckles — taking with it the digital infrastructure of daily life.
This is so important that there’s even a theory quietly discussed among global security experts that Taiwan could threaten to destroy its giant chip fabs as a way to deter China from invading.
Thompson argues that regardless of who wins militarily, the economic result is the same: China, the global factory, is effectively cut off. Taiwan’s chip output vanishes. Global trade grinds lower. Inflation surges. Markets tank.
Recall the 2020 COVID supply chain chaos or last week’s market turmoil from Trump’s tariff barrage — now magnify that impact exponentially.
“A war over Taiwan,” Thompson wrote on Monday, “would put all of these to shame.”
Is war the only answer to resetting the system?
Of course, it’s not clear if, or when, China would invade Taiwan. And even if it did invade, it would face challenges, according to defense writer Michael Peck.
But what’s particularly striking is Thompson’s framing: War might not just break the system — it might be the only way to reset it. The post-World War II economic order, rebooted by Bretton Woods and supercharged by China’s entry into global markets, is showing its age. The US traded industrial capability for cheap goods and ballooning deficits. American manufacturing jobs vanished, supply chains lengthened, and the economic resilience of the US heartland hollowed out. (These are the areas where JD Vance’s anti-globalization message really resonates, by the way.)
Trump’s tariffs — clumsy, politically divisive, and economically painful — might still be preferable to waiting for a war to force change. As Thompson notes, the current system can’t be fixed without a stomach for hard trade-offs, and America seems unwilling to take the hit until it’s forced to.
So we return to the Taiwan question — if China invades, or how close we come. The prudent path, Thompson suggests, may be to pull China deeper into economic interdependence, betting that shared prosperity can delay or prevent disaster. But if that gamble fails, the cost won’t just be measured in GDP — it’ll be in decades of lost stability, broken industries, and a new global order forged not in peace, but in fire.
Link to original article:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-taiwan-china-invasion-explained-2025-4
Thought I’d share this since you all complain about the ruination of the whites.
https://www.bitchute.com/video/ciBJ8uwdLex5/?list=notifications&randomize=false
Thanks for sharing this. The world doesn’t realize this is the time of Jacob’s trouble.
If they only knew what we few on this site already know. The European Caucasian is the direct descendant of Jacob Israel. They are the chosen and the Bible was written BY and about them. Abraham, Isaac, Jacob, Moses, Adam, Shem, Noah, David, and every King to Jesus were all white and their descendants settled Europe. That’s why they’re hated so much.
The less talented people’s like the Chinese and blacks, who also are definitely not charitable either, hate hate hate the white people. The Jews who are of Satan hate hate hate the European Caucasian. The Soviet hates white people.
YHVH hates those who hate his people and especially hates those who are his people and who turn on them. I think of people like Bill Burr, who marries an ugly schvartze and makes a living bashing his own race.
It’s absolutely disgusting what I see, but it’s all ending soon. 2027, the beginning of the end. Jacob’s trouble is coming soon.
Hear, hear!
The events are playing right along the book of Revelations. Those who think the Holy Bible is a fairy tale are seriously delusional.
Yes. The churches are totally silent, especially, the Universal Church whore. It’s coming crashing down this decade, while Trump is in office.
Sorry, but it’s better to know.
Below is an email from a reader… No disagreements from me, but I theorized the ultimate goal is to greatly reduce China trade and its third party nation proxies. The Trump regime wants China out of the Western hemisphere and truly reciprocal tariffs would result in much lower rates. Any tariff rates higher than 45% for China effectively removes them from the US market as their profit margins on their exports is upwards of 40%. That’s the true objective. The American firms are still in denial.
Many of these nations you mention, like in Europe and the Commonwealth have non-tariff restrictions and subsidies that discourage imports.
_____________
Trump is lying again. The new Tariffs are punitive against all countries that have a trade deficit with US.
Trump is delusional to think he can force all countries to have balanced trade with US by punishment, OR is this an excuse to destroy world economy/ is he the Hitler to destroy USA?
What is reciprocal about imposing a
10% tariff on the U.K. when it has a tariff of 0.7% on U.S. goods?
10% tariff on Australia when it has no tariffs on imports of U.S. merchandise?
“How is that reciprocal? Reciprocal would mean a 3.9% tariff on Korea, not 25%
It would mean a 3.9% tariff on Japan, not 24%.
India got slapped with a 26% tariff even though its tariff rate on the U.S. is 5.5%.
Vietnam being hit with a 46% “tariff” when its comparable on U.S. products is. 2.9% (in a $30 trillion U.S. economy, Vietnam runs the grand total of a $123-billion trade surplus with the U.S.)?
Thailand charges a 6.2% tariff , and the U.S. just slammed it with a 36% punitive “tariff.”
So, I must make this very clear. These are not “reciprocal tariffs”, these are actions aimed at completely eliminating the U.S. bilateral trade deficit with every country. That is why the “tariff” is a *”ratio” of every country’s trade surplus with the U.S. divided by the exports of that country*
Trump expects to rid the US of its trade deficits; not just at an aggregate level, but for every country that runs a trade surplus with America. This is why these numbers, 10 per cent, 17 per cent, 20 per cent, or 25 per cent, are so huge. They are ratios.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-david-rosenberg-trumps-reciprocal-tariffs-are-a-con-and-investors-are/
I think the real question is what is the motive? I suspect its more than eliminating China from our markets. Although that alone is a gargantuan objective. China, the second largest country in GDP by alot, is totally entangled in our markets and trade. We simply do not have the ability to replace the goods we get from China. How in the world do we do that? Almost every industry relies on China. We will be looking at massive shortages across the board.
Do we wait for war to force us or do we pull off the band-aid now? The existing global order is a festering sore. It has to be cleaned out and the Obama/Biden regime purposely accelerated the fiscal and trade problems we have today.
It’s too late to change. Global war has already started.
It will be very grim heading into the tribulation period. Lots of death, disease, destruction, inflation, heartache, misery, and especially, lies.
True. Global war is under way. The next 48 to 72 hours might be critical for central bank action.
We are currently in an economic war which will be followed by actual military war in 2027.
Wars usually start on the economic battlefield which then become military wars.
The war this decade will be nuclear. Lots of death.
There will be lots of tribulation before Jesus Christ comes. We will go through the hot, painful crucible to stand before Jesus Christ as glittering pure gold. There will be a lot of impurities coming out and very little gold before Jesus Christ.
I am sending a warning out to the readers, if the Fed does not step in soon, we could see a massive crack in the markets. Bonds and stocks and other assets could get crushed.
I suspect the Fed will delay its responsibility, because of its political nature. I also think we are seeing massive overseas selling of USTs from nations like China and others trying to raise cash collateral.
Where’s the Fed when it should announce it’s ready to provide dollar swaps as needed?
10-year UST yield is now 4.35%, up 17 bps today
The giant margin call! We could have a Lehman event soon I suppose.
Stone, would you expect multiple banks failures and major liquidity crunch that will spread world wide if the central banks all stand pat? Liquidity and debt keep the system going, right?
Depends on the highly politicized Fed
Right. The Fed can’t help Trump or look like their helping Trump right? At the same time, if the system freezes up because of liquidity issues…
Traders boost bets Fed will start cutting rates in May
(Reuters) – Traders boosted bets on Tuesday the Federal Reserve will start cutting its policy rate as soon as next month, as the White House said additional tariffs on imports from China will go into effect on Wednesday in a further escalation of trade hostilities that could slow the economy.
Traders put about a 56% chance of a Fed interest-rate cut in May, up from about 40% earlier in the day, based on the prices of short-term U.S. interest-rate futures traded at CME Group. They expect at least four more rate cuts through the end of the year.
BTC looking very weak here. Testing support. The overall cost basis for MSTRs BTC holdings is about $66,500. Only $10k lower than current price.
An overnight test of $70,000? Looks like it could happen.
Companies in denial….
US Companies Stick With China As Trump Tariffs Set To Take Effect: Report
Henry Khederian – Benzinga
Despite mounting political and economic strain between the U.S. and China, many American companies remain reluctant to scale back their operations in the world’s second-largest economy.
What To Know: According to a new report commissioned by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation and cited by The Wall Street Journal, a majority of surveyed firms still see strategic value in maintaining or expanding their presence in China — even as they increasingly view it as their biggest geopolitical risk.
The report, based on surveys and interviews with nearly 200 businesses, highlights a disconnect between Washington’s push for “selective decoupling” and corporate America’s entrenched reliance on China’s manufacturing capacity, skilled labor, and vast consumer market.
Per the WSJ, roughly 70% of participating U.S. Chamber members indicated plans to maintain or grow Chinese engagement, despite concerns over Beijing’s tightening regulatory environment and the rising specter of conflict across the Taiwan Strait.
The tariff announcement dampened hopes of near-term trade resolution and heightened fears of broader economic fallout, echoing concerns raised earlier Tuesday by Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee regarding potential growth slowdowns linked to trade policy.
Cognitive bias. Paradigm shifts many times don’t get picked till it’s too late
If this can be verified as true, we need to watch for the Trump regime to enact partial to eventual complete embargoes on Chinese products of all sorts. It seems the two communist nations of China and the Soviet Union have already started WWIII.
Putin is acting as if he will keep fighting until he gains back the former Warsaw Pact nations of the Soviet Union.
Is Beijing secretly supporting Russia in Ukraine?
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14584043/amp/beijing-ukraine-russia-china-troops-donetsk.html?ito=smartnews
The presence of Chinese troops in Ukraine reveals a sinister ‘authoritarian axis in action’, experts have warned after Kyiv claimed to have captured troops in Donetsk.
104%!
Its the Japan 1941 scenario!
Lets see is the CCP does it to Taiwan before we do!
The federal budget deficit totaled $1.3 trillion in the first half of fiscal year 2025, the Congressional Budget Office estimates. That amount is $245 billion more than the deficit recorded during the same period last fiscal year. Revenues increased by $71 billion (or 3 percent), and outlays rose by $317 billion (or 10 percent).
The change in the deficit was influenced by the timing of outlays and revenues, which decreased the deficit during the first six months of fiscal year 2024. Outlays in October 2023 were reduced by shifts in the timing of payments that were due on October 1, 2023, a Sunday. (The payments were made that September.) If not for that shift, the deficit so far this fiscal year would have been $173 billion more than the shortfall at this point last year. Part of the deficit increase in 2025 also arises from the postponement of some tax deadlines from 2023 to 2024, which boosted receipts in 2024.
In January 2025, CBO projected a deficit of $1.9 trillion for fiscal year 2025, the same as the actual deficit for fiscal year 2024.
The statutory debt limit was reinstated on January 2, 2025, and set at $36.1 trillion, matching the amount of total debt that was outstanding on the prior day. On January 21, 2025, the Department of the Treasury announced a “debt issuance suspension period” and began taking “extraordinary measures” to continue financing government operations without breaching the debt limit. In March 2025, CBO estimated that if the debt limit remains unchanged, the government’s ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025.
Source: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61300
Let’s get this war started already, might as well, the heck.
Right! Were only getting older!
I’m hoping all my predictions come to pass exactly as I have been saying since 2020. The terrible year will be 2027.
It seems the only people who don’t think WWIII has started are the Americans and Europeans. North Korea has been sending troops already.
Prophecy of the popes expires in 2027.
After reading about Maryland’s government and its sudden $3.3 billion deficit. I am on target to list to sell a 250k PG condo in May. I will pay the taxes and buy all gold with it. I own it free and clear.
Get your money liquid! WWIII and the end of this age is coming this decade.
CCP China is selling USTs and driving up yields.
I’m afraid the average American has no real clue what is coming or that WW3 is nearing or has already started!
This is in no way Trump’s fault. He just ripped off the band-aid.
CCP China seems to be dumping USTs en masse.
Where the hell is the Federal Reserve? No show and ghosting.
Like 2008, the Fed is going to wait for the market to crash before they step in. It is planned from the top that way to consolidate wealth for one last time before 2027.
I suspect that is correct. Although, they could come in with a form of QE which in the end would hammer the fiat currency system!
It’s all normal now…..
I had a stroke in my sleep at 38 — what happened when I woke up was terrifying, it was all caught on nanny cam
https://nypost.com/2025/04/07/health/teacher-thought-strokes-were-for-old-people-then-had-one-at-38/
Bessent Says Japan, South Korea, Taiwan May Back Alaska Energy Deal
(Bloomberg) — Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday flagged a potential energy investment deal in Alaska involving key Asian economic partners, in the broader context of trade talks in the wake of President Donald Trump’s steep reciprocal tariffs.
“We will see what our trading partners offer” as the negotiations get going, Bessent said on CNBC. “For instance, there is talk of a big energy deal in Alaska where the Japanese and perhaps the Koreans, perhaps the Taiwanese, would provide — would take a lot of the offtake,” he said, apparently referring to the potential for the three economies to purchase the resultant output.
They could also “provide financing for the deal, so that could be an alternative for them to come forward with that,” Bessent said. “Because not only would that provide a lot of American jobs, but it would narrow the trade deficit.”
The Treasury chief reiterated that Trump will be directly involved in the trade talks. Yesterday, Bessent said Japan would be prioritized thanks to having come early to the US in seeking negotiations, and because of its importance as an American military as well as economic ally.
Bessent also said that “I wasn’t involved in the calculations of the numbers” for the reciprocal tariffs unveiled last week, which kick in April 9. By contrast, he said that he and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett “have the pen for the administration” with regard to talks with Congress on Trump’s tax-cut package.
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
This scene was filmed before Chicomm China opened for business. Predictive programming at its finest.
This is what happens when people entangle themselves with others who worship the dragon. It’s been over 50 years in the making. The next couple years are going to be very painful for those living in America as we come to grips with our whoring and fornicating for cheap goods.
The Chinese are non-Adamic man and will never stop. They can’t be reasoned with and don’t think like you and I think.
Yes, the land of the pagan godess, Libertas is going down! Just like ancient Israel with fornication and idolatry!
Chinese are never to be trusted. Chinks by nature are dishonest, manipulative, and conniving. They have zero morals. The USA really whored out by doing business with CCP and that picture above in planet of the apes says it all.
They have millions of people come to the United States and steal all the technology. They circumvent all trademark and copyright laws and infringe on anything that suits them. Good luck trying to get legal remedy. Then they dump onto the Open market and drive away all competition through unfair practices. This is going on for so long now, for decades. The US government was pressured into not doing anything by the large multinational and offshore corporations, because it would impinge on profitability.
At least Trump has the temerity to do something. He started very early in his term and a lot of his voters back him. Better to do it now than to wait till War.
Sorry, but this statement is inaccurate. My parents are from China and lived among the people. It’s the Japanese who occupied Manchuria that were not to be trusted in those days and later the murdering communists. But pre communist Chinese are largely good loyal people and many worked for and with Russian families in the early 1900’s. They were dirty and some were petty thieves, but generally not plotting to stab you in the back after pretending to be your friend. The red army would never pretend to be your friend. Rather they just walked into your house in uniform and armed and took what they wanted. Some (like my dad’s dad) were taken away to a gulag never to be seen again.
The distinction that people need to understand is the communist mentality vs. the person or group of people. Russia no longer exists in the historical context since it was taken over by murdering Bolsheviks in 1917. Everyone today in the land called Russia is a product of the Soviet system. China has no emperor but a Soviet inspired system since 1949 when Mao kicked out the Japanese and began the biggest mass murder campaign the world has ever known. Chinese who are referred to as ABC (American Born Chinese) are great loyal Americans who are grateful to be here. They also have no love for commies.
You are correct about the no morals part, particularly in the context compared to how the general population was brought up. Communism has a way of turning people into machines who are only loyal to the governing party of the country. A war with the CCP can be more disastrous than the average American might think.
Excellent input of perspective.
Did all this rage ever translate into change? Tuesdays are Soylent Green days.
Supreme Court allows Trump to enforce Alien Enemies Act for rapid deportations for now
By John Fritze, CNN
The Supreme Court on Monday allowed President Donald Trump to enforce the Alien Enemies Act for now, handing the White House a significant victory that will let immigration officials rely on a sweeping wartime authority to rapidly deport alleged gang members.
The unsigned decision in the case, the most closely watched emergency appeal pending at the Supreme Court, lets Trump invoke the 1798 law to speed removals while litigation over the act’s use plays out in lower courts. The court stressed that people deported going forward should receive notice they are subject to the act and an opportunity to have their removal reviewed.
The court’s three liberal justices dissented from the decision, and Justice Amy Coney Barrett, a member of the court’s conservative wing, partially dissented.
Trump framed his emergency appeal as a fight over judicial power and, specifically, US District Judge James Boasberg’s order that temporarily blocked the president from enforcing the Alien Enemies Act against five Venezuelans who sued and a broader class of people who might be affected – in other words, anyone else. By granting the president’s request, the Supreme Court has tossed out Boasberg’s orders.
Critically, the court made clear in its unsigned order that officials must give migrants subject to Trump’s Alien Enemies Act proclamation adequate notice that they are being removed pursuant to the wartime authority so that they have time to bring habeas complaints.
A key concern among attorneys representing the migrants has been that the government’s rush to remove migrants under the act leaves them with little to no time to file such legal claims.
“The notice must be afforded within a reasonable time and in such a manner as will allow them to actually seek habeas relief in the proper venue before such removal occurs,” the justices wrote, adding: “The detainees subject to removal orders under the AEA are entitled to notice and an opportunity to challenge their removal.”
CNN has reached out to the White House for comment.
The black governor of Maryland has to deal with a $3.3 billion deficit this fiscal year. When the white Republican governor left office in 2023, he presided over a $5 billion surplus. Now the cursed schvartze governor and the supermajority Democrats are proposing a reparations program. Get out of all blue and black areas! These non-Adamic people are cursed….
Record tax increase, massive budget cuts expected as Maryland Legislature ends session – Washington Times
Maryland state lawmakers were closing in on a $1.6 billion tax increase and $2 billion in budget cuts as their legislative session drew to a close Monday, as bills addressing reparations for Black residents and early release for long-term convicts were making their way to the governor’s desk for signatures.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/apr/7/record-tax-increase-massive-budget-cuts-expected-maryland-legislature/
Good point! When goods don’t cross borders, armies will!
When armies cross borders, goods don’t.
That sounds so familiar!