A reader asks; Will the US Government go bankrupt?

Mr Stone, I would value your assessment of this article regarding the US collapse everyone’s expecting.

Federal government bankruptcy?

I guess once the US blows up enough goyim it’s time to pull the plug and let them “dry up and blow away”.

Obviously, they haven’t done the required damage yet however.

Bob

The United States government will never declare bankruptcy. What this article states is the same stuff I’ve read in the alt-media since the 90s.

Only governments whose external sovereign debt is denominated in other currencies have the possibility of default. We observed this phenomenon in Latin America in the 1980s and we saw this with the Asian tigers of the ’90s. I also know that Argentina’s current government faces some of these issues, because a majority of its outstanding sovereign debt is denominated in foreign currencies.

The Federal Reserve absorbs all of the necessary debt needed to keep the Treasury market moving forward. The vast majority of US Treasury debt is held internally and all of it is denominated in US dollars that become ever softer by the day.

Even if all the foreigners dumped their Treasuries, the FED would step in like they have been doing since 2008 when QE was introduced. The FED steps in and guarantees virtually everything now. The thought of a Federal bankruptcy is as remote as Pope Francis criticizing homosexuals.

In addition, any net interest income earned by the Federal Reserve is remitted back to the US Treasury. This phenomenon in essence, creates a closed financing loop and would mirror the mechanism currently in operation in Japan. In this instance, an optimal theoretical situation for the USG would be for the Federal Reserve to own all of the outstanding Treasury debt.

When I complain about QE in its current state, I only remark about a profligate government spending scheme that results in higher market-neutral interest rates and rising interest payments. QE can still exist forever, it’s just that it will cause excess inflation growth now. Despite rhetoric to the contrary, the Federal Reserve can expand its balance sheet forever.

The thought of national bankruptcy is silly, and I point the reader to the value of the USDX as proof. The US has already been consuming more than 100% of the world’s net savings rate since 2008. We’re still here and the asset owners get wealthier by the day.

Inflation and suppressed bond yields is a recipe for success; for those in the 90th percentile of balance sheet wealth. Nothing is changing. I previously have calculated that the neutral Fed funds rate is at least 4%. Thus, current Fed monetary policy is actually somewhat dovish and not restrictive.

This DOGE stuff is nonsense and is solely meant for the profane Trump supporters to consume. Once in office, Trump will spill even more red ink… all the way to the force majeure.

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40 thoughts on “A reader asks; Will the US Government go bankrupt?

  1. Fed Beige Book Shows Businesses Confident in Demand Prospects
    Catarina Saraiva

    The Fed’s districts reported that inflation was rising only modestly and companies had more trouble passing on higher costs.

    (Bloomberg) — Economic activity increased slightly in November after little change in preceding months, and US businesses grew more upbeat about demand prospects, the Federal Reserve said in its latest Beige Book survey.

    “Though growth in economic activity was generally small, expectations for growth rose moderately across most geographies and sectors,” according to the report published Wednesday in Washington. “Business contacts expressed optimism that demand will rise in coming months. Consumer spending was generally stable.”

    The Fed report had recently painted a bleaker picture of the economy than official government statistics, showing flat growth, lower hiring rates and only small increases in prices. In many cases that contradicts topline economic figures showing still-strong activity, powered by ample consumer spending and a relatively low unemployment rate.

    The Fed’s districts reported that inflation was rising only modestly and companies had more trouble passing on higher costs as consumers grew more discerning about pricing.

    Hiring was seen as subdued with low worker turnover, while layoffs were also limited. Business contacts said they expected steady to modest growth in employment.

    “Wage growth softened to a modest pace across most Districts, as did expectations for wage growth in coming months,” the survey said.

    The Kansas City Fed compiled the latest edition of the Beige Book using information gathered on or before Nov. 22. The report includes anecdotes and commentary about economic conditions from businesses and other contacts in each of the Fed’s 12 districts.

    1. That S&P 500 is rockin! A series of higher highs and higher lows, within confined intraday volatility. The signs are showing a strong economy, expansion, and not a downturn. Rewind back to August when the DOOM was still in the air, and the VIX spiked past the $60 level for a day and tanked back down it didn’t stay up or trade sideways.

      Next up in the script could be a cease fire declared in the Ukraine hoax, they played that string too long. It’s Trumpy time now, so they will close that project up and move on. UPTICK! But some are still waiting on that fake nuke explosion in a cornfield somewhere to shut everything down. However it appears they want the mighty Trumpy return to be a Celebration, at least for a few years.

      “From hero to zero and then Back again” is the motto.

      Chris, I think(always could be wrong) but the next round of numbers you talk about alot are going to show increased bullish sentiment:
      upcoming non-farm payrolls
      earnings and unemployment claims
      PMI above 55
      Corporate ERs showing profit estimate beats

      1. The economy is rocking… for the asset owners!

        Atlanta Fed GDP latest estimate: 3.2 percent — December 02, 2024

        The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2024 is 3.2 percent on December 2, up from 2.7 percent on November 27. After this morning’s construction spending release from the US Census Bureau and the Manufacturing ISM Report on Business from the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.0 percent and 0.0 percent, respectively, to 3.4 percent and 1.2 percent.

        Think of all the interest income that economic stakeholders are receiving from their UST holdings. In trying to ostensibly lower inflation, the Fed is forcing the USG to accumulate all that high rate debt. With lower rates, a lot less people would be interested in owning Treasuries.

        This is not by accident. Ask yellen.

  2. Putin denigrates the dollar as a reserve, openly discusses Bitcoin as a replacement, and doesn’t even mention gold as an alternative. Vladimir Putin as the Soviet Party Chairman is as controlled as any Western politician. He doesn’t mention gold, because his handlers who also own the Bank of Russia forbid him.
    _____________

    Russia’s Putin questions the need for dollar forex reserves, touts bitcoin
    By Reuters
    December 4, 2024 9:56 AM EST

    MOSCOW, Dec 4 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday questioned the need to hold state reserves in foreign currencies since they could easily be confiscated for political reasons, saying that domestic investment of such reserves was more attractive.

    Western countries froze about $300 billion of Russian reserves, accumulated from windfall energy revenues, at the start of the Ukraine war in 2022. Discussions are ongoing among G7 countries on how these funds could be used to support Ukraine.

    “A legitimate question: why accumulate reserves if they can be lost so easily?” Putin said in remarks to an investment conference. He suggested that investment of state savings into infrastructure, logistics, science and education was more reliable than holding them in foreign assets.

    Putin said the current U.S. administration was undermining the role of the U.S dollar as the reserve currency in the global economy by using it for political purposes, forcing many countries to turn to alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies.

    “For example, bitcoin, who can prohibit it? No one,” Putin said. He added that development of new payment technologies was inevitable, due to their lower costs and reliability.

  3. Warren Buffett is looking foolish selling off a majority of his AAPL holdings. His average selling price is probably about $70 below the current bid. His dumping of BAC was also poorly timed and seemed almost desperate. While Buffett was selling BAC, the stock couldn’t catch a break. But after the dust settled, BAC is now up another $7 a share.

    1. It’s a shame. People looking for answers have a difficult time wading through the muck looking for Truth. The Truth is only available from one source, and one Book! Very few know it and discuss it. Matt. 7:14

      1. And there is this also, A recent article in the Wall Street Journal reported that Bible sales in the United States increased by 22% through October 2024, outpacing the overall printbook market’s growth of less than 1%, according to Circana BookScan data. This surge in religious text purchases comes as Americans grapple with economic uncertainties, international conflicts, and election-related anxiety.

        1. Yes, I did see this. There are a lot of people in this world who have been in and out of all of the organized churches and are not getting any answers. The Catholic church is the worst, followed by the Protestant churches. There is no truth left and the priests and pastors are providing no answers for the people. The lost sheep of the House of Israel are suffering greatly in these last days, though it was prophesied that these Laodicean churches would deceive their sheep.

          The truth is considered racist, xenophobic, white supremacist, hateful, chauvinistic and misogynist, and arrogant. These lukewarm Christians are leading the more zealous ones astray. The lost sheep are seeking answers and are finally reaching for the Bible. Hopefully, they won’t turn to the Google juice synagogue search algorithms for assistance, but I don’t hold out much hope.

    2. I can see why men are leaving traditional churches. The mainstream churches denigrate the role of the father as the head of the household while elevating the mother. This is in direct conflict of the Holy Bible which states that the father should be the head of the household and be the ultimate decision maker.

      The methodist church that I used to attend as a child has replaced the traditional choir with a “christian” rock band. I just don’t see how rock music can be christian as rock music was originally inspired by Satan. Mainstream churches clearly lead their sheep astray from Jesus.

      1. And the husband as the head of the household is also supposed to be the teacher of Biblical Truth! If he is a novice, he should seek help from those that are seasoned in the Truth, like this blog for instance.

      2. A maternal lineage is talmudic and satanic. According to the Bible and Yahweh, lineage is determined by the seed or the man. In the case of the Bible, man means Adamic man. There’s also Genesis 1 or day six man. These are the Asians, African blacks, Mesoamericans, and Dravidians, etc. but the Bible solely pertains to adamic man.

        However, The Book of Revelation does observe all the other forms of humans during the tribulation period. The lost sheep have been committing terrible adulteries through their race mixing and miscegenation. These willfully ignorant fools refuse to understand how horrible a sin this is and that it is totally satanic and against everything the Bible stands for. It allows the Jew synagogue to destroy its opposition.

        Any church that observes the maternal side is satanic by definition. It is a church based on Judaism and the Talmud.

          1. And so are all the organized religions that masquerade as Christianity. For modern Christianity and the organized churches, they are houses built on a bedrock of Judaism and spiritual communism.

  4. Debt to the Penny up $84 billion overnight to $36,171,181,955,284.36….

    The Fed can continue rolling off balance sheet assets, but the USG will pay much higher real interest rates to compensate for keeping the charades going.

  5. $BCTX making waves again. The news continues to remain bullish and the stock manipulation schemes look like they may be coming to an end. Marc Lustig, a 10% owning board member resigned on November 26th, and I suspect it’s because he was tired of the stock manipulation as he publicly proclaimed on the message board. He is now free to engage in any way he sees fit. The stock started rising the day his resignation was announced. All eyes are on BCTX.

  6. Ok, sounds reasonable. The US does not need to default or declare bankruptcy because they can always print more money etc.

    On the flip side, could the US declare bankruptcy if it WANTED to? Could they plug the plug on purpose, or is that impossible too?

    It appears to me that the money system is so fake they can do whatever they want, but I’m no expert in these matters.

    You are saying they don’t NEED to crash it, and I accept that. Are you 100% certain they will never WANT to do it – maybe it could that be a part of the coming Force Majeure? I suppose they could crash it all if they wanted to, so the question is would they want to? Would it further the agenda?

    1. Only a force majeure can end the system. Anything else would not be justifiable. They would be blamed. The Fed has made it clear that short of an alien invasion, they will keep the system operating. Every crisis brings them more control.

  7. For the sake of argument, what would happen to asset prices if doge managed to cut 2 trillion from the federal governments annual budget.

    1. Asset prices of all sorts would face sizeable downward pressure. Especially BTC. Dollars would be in high demand to service all that outstanding dollar denominated debt.

      Price inflation would drop as well.

        1. Anything that restricts the new supply of Treasuries would be US Treasury bullish. Essentially, a contraction of government spending would decrease aggregate demand and would help lower price inflation growth, and thus, nominal bond yields, all other things being equal.

          So, if the Trump regime actually cut $2 trillion in spending I would be more sanguine toward holding longer dated Treasuries and would avoid money market funds over the longer term as the FED could begin to genuinely cut overnight rates in earnest.

          We could own longer dated Treasuries under this scenario with the expectation that we could experience capital gains on longer dated Treasuries as bond yields fell.

          If we theorize we could see downward asset price pressures from a cut back in federal spending, overlevered investors could be adversely impacted. Looking at it from another angle, if bond yields fell from a cut back in federal spending, investor cost of capital could drop as well.

    2. It’s pure and simple. When the government spends less or worse shuts down spending then a lot less money goes into circulation. Less money chasing the same amount of goods results in lower prices and the unit currency buying more.
      Raising taxes and holding spending has the same effect as taxes siphon money out of circulation.

      All this said, I believe spending will never go down nor taxes will rise due to the sharp economic pain of doing otherwise. Any government that raises taxes and/or cuts spending commits political suicide and very few politicians are willing to do this unless they have no regard for political suicide.

      Trump is in his last term and does not care about getting re-elected. I have a hunch he does not care about his fellow Republican political prospects. With that in mind, there could be some real tough love on the way with an economic depression that will stick on the Republicans for years to come and pave the way for a one party socialist banana republic. Hope and pray to the Lord Yahweh that this does not happen and I am wrong. I am just thinking of a possible SoS plan.
      Trump was allowed to win for reasons I am still figuring out. The will of the people really does not matter unless it is in line with the SoS.

      1. A perfect example of economic shock is Argentina under Javier Milei. He slashed government spending and fired a lot of government workers.

      2. I agree Trump was allowed to win. Kamala was not a serious offering.

        That could be why the dems lost the election on purpose, IMO.
        Trump’s blue on the inside, orange on the outside, and red all the way through. Not republican red, but soviet red?

        He is entertaining to watch though (except when he gets all nasty about Israel).

      3. Property taxes go up every year. Around 2010 they doubled and now present day since 2009 they have almost tripled, unless the owner has exemptions. I’m sure this has happened in most State Counties across the USA. Look at what your property taxes were in 2009.

        Trump didn’t mention BTC very much in his first term and now he’s a BTC carnival barker. I’m surprised he didn’t give Jeff from Dollarvigilante a position on his team. I’m not sure how digital numbers that were pumped up beyond recognition so they can use it as a reserve for the dollar, but apparently the dollar is not backed by anything now. Difficult and tricky to picture in one’s head. It’s something that can go right back down real quick, maybe that’s part of the majure, to help tank the financial apparatus.

        I remember when BTC went over $100 and people fell out of there chairs saying it’s way too high now it’ll tank back, but look at how high they pumped it. It’s still not worth anything.

        1. Agreed. Bitcoin and other cryptos are only a program in computers. They are not backed by any assets. The only promise that backs these cryptocurrencies is the limited supply but that can easily be altered. In addition, what happens to these electronic based cryptos when the grid goes down? Most likely poof like when the wife or girlfriend sees the money. Crypto also disappear very easily as accounts get hacked. Most of the crypto economy businesses are ponzi scams or illegal businesses. For all the above mentioned reasons I stay away from crypto.

    3. The DOGE cuts would imply a large number of govt employee layoffs wouldn’t it? So all those people would still be known colloquially as “government employees” when they go on the dole.

      It might save some money, but a big chunk of those savings would just be spent on handouts wouldn’t they?

      1. Most government employees hardly work on the job and don’t use their brains much. A lot of government employees have lower IQs than those in the private sector and they probably cannot function in a competitive work environment.

        1. I wouldn’t make the claim that government employees have lower IQs, but government employees tend to be extremely risk-averse. This is why they seek government jobs. Many well-educated and IQ-based intelligent people seek to work in the government. They also tend to be more left than the Gen pop.

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