President Donald Trump has issued an ominous new justification for his tariff hikes, saying products need to be made in the United States in case it goes to ‘war’.
Notes to reader:
This supposed tariff war was truly never about “fair trade”. It was always about national security and preparing the US for the upcoming global conflict. President Trump knows war is coming and he is the only national politician who is warning his people. He’s now making his objectives public and my readers must listen.
And while CCP leader, Xi Jinping, can claim there are no winners in any trade “war”, the US will be less of a loser when war comes. Thus, it’s imperative that USA, Inc. figure out how to decouple from China as soon as possible.
In this regard, President Trump has his work cut out for him, as all the prior presidents going back to Nixon developed policies to build up CCP China at America’s expense.
As QE expires, the Fed has been running out of easy options. Thanks to all the prior presidents who insisted on running ever larger fiscal and trade deficits, Trump has to deal with the ramifications of a dying global dollar policy.
Because there is probably less than three years left before the global conflict that will involve China and the United States commences, Trump has been extremely active in reshaping the current global order to suit America’s objectives.
Trump has pulled off the bandages to reveal the festering, stinking wound that “fair trade” represented to America.
Xi still claims that there is a trade war, but there really is none. The goal of the US government is to separate from CCP China as much as possible. Xi is still thinking he needs to somehow counter with more trade war rhetoric, but he is fighting another war in which he’s swinging at ghosts.
As these sets of circumstances progress, much of Southeast Asian trade will align with China, as the United States endeavors to reconfigure its supply chain to the Western hemisphere.
Essentially, the United States will eventually have to cut bait with nations like Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan if it is to truly decouple from the Chinese economy.
I find it extremely interesting that President Trump has recently become more vocal in declaring that the United States is aligned with the God of the Bible and Jesus Christ. I am certain this is no coincidence, since he is probably aware that he will be the sitting president as World War III unfolds, and the USA will need as much Divine intervention as possible.
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Trump says he’s prepping for ‘war’ with China as he angers Xi Jinping
The Daily Mail
•President Donald Trump has issued an ominous new justification for his tariff hikes, saying products need to be made in the United States in case it goes to ‘war’.
•Trump has sparked fears of a recession with his crackdown on foreign imports which is part of a campaign to have more goods made in America and ramp up manufacturing.
•In his latest explanation of the tariff policy he suggested it was also necessary in case there was a future war.
Trump made the comments on Air Force One on Sunday while talking about possible future pharmaceutical tariffs.
He said: ‘We’re going to have our drugs made in the United States so that in case of war, in case of whatever, we’re not relying on China and various other countries, which is not a good idea.
‘As Trump left open the possibility of more tariffs to come, Chinese President Xi Jinping had his own words of warning as he gave a statement in Vietnam during a tour of Southeast Asia tour.
‘There are no winners in a trade war, or a tariff war,’ Xi wrote in an editorial jointly published in Vietnamese and Chinese official media.
‘Our two countries should resolutely safeguard the multilateral trading system, stable global industrial and supply chains, and open and cooperative international environment.’
He added: ‘Trade war and tariff war will produce no winner, and protectionism will lead nowhere.’
Xi is making the trip to shore up alliances and find solutions for the trade war with Trump. After Vietnam, the Chinese president is expected to go to Malaysia and then Cambodia.China has been a top target for the White House.
Trump put a 90-day pause on many of his on-again, off-again reciprocal tariffs but left in place a 145 per cent import tax on goods from China.
In response, Beijing suspended exports of certain rare earth minerals and magnets that are crucial for the world’s car, semiconductor and aerospace industries.
The move could impact American factories across the country, particularly in the auto industry. Many of the minerals make up components of a vehicle’s motor.
Trump’s top economic adviser said China’s action was ‘concerning.’
‘They’re concerning. And we’re thinking about all the options right now,’ Kevin Hassett said outside of the White House.
‘Rare earths are a part of lots of the economy. It’s a little bit of the value add to the US economy, but a crucial part of the value added.’
He said the administration was helping small businesses that relied on supplies out of China find alternative resources.
The officials understand ‘their concerns and are thinking about how best to address them, including by finding other suppliers that are not on the current list that China is on,’ he said.
Until 2023, China produced 99 per cent of the world’s supply of heavy rare earth metals.
China also produces 90 percent of the world’s nearly 200,000 tons a year of rare earth magnets, which are far more powerful than conventional iron magnets.
‘The White House is concerned about China. Period,’ Hassett noted.
And there may be more tariffs to come.
Trump said on Sunday that semiconductor tariffs will ‘take place in the very near future,’ but expressed some ‘flexibility’ regarding tariffs on products such as iPhones and tablets.
‘The tariffs will be in place in the not-too-distant future,’ he said.
The U.S. markets opened slightly higher Monday off the news that smartphones, computers, memory chips and several other categories of products will be exempt from tariffs.
Trump, however, warned they might still be targeted although he said he will be ‘flexible’ on the matter.
‘That’s going to be announced very soon, and we’ll be discussing it, but we’ll also talk to companies. You know, you have to show a certain flexibility. Nobody should be so rigid.’
Meanwhile there is growing concern in corporate America about the volatility the tariff war is causing in the global stock markets.
A majority of America’s top business executives are worried the country could enter a recession soon, a new survey found.
In a poll of more than 300 CEOs conducted in April, 62 percent said they see a recession or other economic downturn in the next six months, according to Chief Executive, an industry group that runs the survey. That’s up from 48 percent who said the same in March.
‘Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,’ Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, told NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday.
‘And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.’
Once again, Joel Skousen is out pounding the table about how we had “fair trade” and that Trump is taking it away. The US never had fair trade and it was never about fair trade. It was about building up its existential enemies, while Americans “enjoyed” cheap prices.
I’m surprised that a man who claims to be the foremost expert on conspiracy overlooks these economic realities. After all, it’s always about the monetary system and the economy. That’s how the New World Order gets built.
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US firms proving Trump’s tariffs can bring Middle America roaring back
A handful of small US companies are benefiting from President Trump’s aggressive tariff policies.
Most businesses are grappling with higher costs and scrambling to find new suppliers in the wake of Trump’s wide-reaching tariffs on imports.
But a metals producer in Pennsylvania has seen a 35 percent sales boost in the first quarter of the year.
Meanwhile, an advertising and marketing firm in Missouri has reported an even larger 40 percent bump in revenue.
Ellwood Group, which makes forged steel, nickel and aluminum products, has seen orders surge as large construction projects look for alternatives to previously cheaper Asian steel.
Trump imposed a 25 percent tariff on all steel and aluminum imports in March.
‘Customers want to get ahead of the tariffs,’ David Barensfeld, chairman of Ellwood, told the Wall Street Journal.
‘They are diversifying, reshoring because they want to derisk foreign supply chains.’
The uptick in demand has led the company to add 50 more workers to its staff of 2,000 — with plans to hire another 50 soon.
Ellwood is also forecasting higher profit-sharing payouts for current employees.
The chaos of Trump’s initial announcements sent the stock market plunging and businesses reeling.
However, the 90-day pause to most tariffs above ten percent provided relief as well as increased uncertainty for businesses. XXXX Is that increased uncertainty
Big Time Advertising & Marketing in St Louis, Missouri is another business that has seen an unexpected boost from the tariffs.
The agency, which specializes in work for new and used car dealers, has seen its revenue jump 40 percent this year.
Its clients are asking the agency to make campaigns that appeal to buyers spooked by tariffs and the overall economic uncertainty.
‘Our phones are already ringing off the hook. “How much should I spend? How should I change my messaging?”‘ the agency’s CEO Terry MacCauley told the Journal.
‘As prices go up and buyers become more hesitant, our jobs become more important,’ he explained.
As well as its existing clients the company has signed on five new clients in the last month alone.
MacCauley said he has plans to hire more staff but wants to be sure the surge in business will last.
‘I still have one foot on the dock and one foot on the boat, ready to sail,’ he said.
The capriciousness of Trump’s policy changes mean businesses are unable to plan with certainty.
Formic Technologies, a robot rental startup, told the Journal its business has jumped in recent months as US manufacturers try to increase capacity without making long-term commitments.
If the manufacturers business dips again they can simply return the robots.
Link to original article;
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-14625647/amp/us-companies-profiting-donald-trump-tariffs.html
Fair trade is a myth! To maintain the dollar as the reserve, we had to export dollars. America enjoyed a superb standard of living for decade’s. That is now coming to an end.
I don’t think much of America has a good standard of living. I don’t mistake relatively cheap prices with a good standard of living. The bottom 50% are not living a good standard of living.
When we compare the standard of living of those from 50 years ago, there’s no comparison. The working stiff in the United States was doing much better back then and owned his own domicile with a reasonable mortgage.
The working stiff from 50 years ago was able to have three or four children much more easily today. Cheap prices does not equal standard of living. The synagogue media has given us a false binary on this one.
Read this nonsensical Newsweek article. Who writes this crap.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=webhp&rct=j&url=https://www.newsweek.com/millennials-selling-homes-they-bought-pandemic-after-realizing-mistake-2061235
These types of articles are vetted by senior editors who receive their orders out of Arlington and McLean VA.
These articles are designed to help demoralize the intended target, first time home buyers, as well as develop a bias towards owning homes. You and I know the goal is for the corporation to own the home and for the occupant to rent it.
At least that’s the theory. I look at the percent of homes that are owner occupied and the percentage has been fairly consistent for decades. So, I don’t know how effective this type of propaganda placement truly is. The desire to own one’s own domicile is still very strong.
Interesting. But I saw it coming when it was happening in real time and made the prediction here during the peak of insanity of home prices. I was in the market myself but could not stomach the $80K over asking. I just walked away from several houses shaking my head. My prediction was those who overpaid for houses were likely getting overpaid at work. The work from home model was the future (likely funded by covid stimulus money) with no end in sight. In other words, smoke and mirrors. I saw the rapid rise in prices and thought the establishment is stoking the fire for another opportunity for investors to buy up houses. If I recall my predictions at the time were not well received.
I landed on a unique property and ended up paying $30K over. And what’s even more interesting, before the deal closed I had $40K in equity. The house I purchased was appraised for more than I paid. According to my real estate agent that never happens. The house always appraises for what it sold for.
While I had the desire to replace my HOA condo with a house and shop, I was not willing to pay $80K over. I even held my nose at $30K over but fortunately saw the value of the rare property combination and location. The house needs work and there is plenty I want to change, but it’s livable.
It’s interesting that Radar Online files this under “Catholic Church.”
FYI… The prophet, Jeremiah, took the Ark of the Covenant with him to Ireland. That’s where the breach was healed. The Ark is no where near the pyramids.
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Jesus Christ’s ‘Body’ Found! Experts Say Son of God’s Corpse is Hidden In Giant Chamber Under Great Pyramid of Giza in Egypt
https://radaronline.com/p/jesus-christ-body-found-experts-say-corpse-hidden-under-great-pyramid-giza-egypt/
If they found a body, its likely Nimrod! The false one!
Revelation 17:11 the one who once was…
There will be a lot of attempts in the near future to prove that the Bible was false in order to discredit Christianity. There will be a lot of attempts to show that Jesus was not what he was in the Bible to turn people away from Jesus Christ.
Do not fall for any so called “proof” discrediting statements mentioned in the Holy Bible. These findings are lies from the Father of all lies who tempted Jesus Christ in the desert for 40 days.
Correct!
It’s just Christian gaslighting for Holy week. I once worked for a company owned by jews who had a jewish VP of sales, he would call me just before 3:00pm on good friday and ask me if I was doing anything important then wish me a nice day. Did it every year for the 9 years I worked there, He just wanted to let me know “we got your guy”.
This morning’s data dump is quite a handful. Housing starts are much lower than expected and are bullish for existing SFR investors.
Jobless claims come in less than expected, which is economic bullish.
The Philadelphia Fed is a big swing and a miss. Much lower than expected, but I wouldn’t read too much into this regional survey as it could be like the University of Michigan confidence numbers. With that said, the new orders number is definitely light.
Overall, bond bullish.
Housing Starts (Mar)
Act: 1.324M Cons: 1.420M Prev: 1.494M
Housing Starts (MoM) (Mar)
Act: -11.4% Cons: Prev: 9.8%
Building Permits (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 1.6% Cons: Prev: -1.0%
Building Permits (Mar)
Act: 1.482M Cons: 1.450M Prev: 1.459M
Initial Jobless Claims
Act: 215K Cons: 225K Prev: 224K
Continuing Jobless Claims
Act: 1,885K Cons: 1,870K Prev: 1,844K
Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
Act: 220.75K Cons: Prev: 223.25K
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Apr)
Act: -26.4 Cons: 2.2 Prev: 12.5
Philly Fed Business Conditions (Apr)
Act: 6.9 Cons: Prev: 5.6
Philly Fed CAPEX Index (Apr)
Act: 2.00 Cons: Prev: 13.40
Philly Fed Employment (Apr)
Act: 0.2 Cons: Prev: 19.7
Philly Fed New Orders (Apr)
Act: -34.2 Cons: Prev: 8.7
Philly Fed Prices Paid (Apr)
Act: 51.00 Cons: Prev: 48.30
I am in interested in buying HTZ shares on any pullbacks.
Have you ever looked at AMRK I bought it previously a couple years ago because they were buying up a lot of the coin and bullion dealers that I bought coins from and the stock did well and had a big run up and split and recently went down a lot and now I was thinking might be a turn around point to get back in.
Have you heard Trump may de list Chinese companies from the stock exchange? That’ll piss them off!
Eventually, this will all happen. It might take a year or two, but the goal of the Trump regime and those of his handlers is to decouple completely from CCP China. It has nothing to do with fair trade, but national security.
💰💰💰🤑🤑🤑
I’m in for 1,000 shares so far. Waiting for sizable pullback. Any situation where tariffs are put on hold for autos can watch this stock drop.
This is quickly becoming one of those meme stocks.
I thought it was already one of those Wallstreetbets meme stocks before a number of years ago. Seems like these keep getting recycled and propped up to me.
Bill ackman announced a 19.8% HTZ stake on CNBC yesterday afternoon just before market close.
HTZ down after hours, did you buy the dip? Half the float is shorted. I highly doubt the shorts all covered today and many are trapped. It could squeeze more.
I remember AMRK, if you been holding for a year for capital gains, I’d wait till the end of the month, collect one more juicy dividend then scale out on any upticks if you have profits.
I bought mine in the fives and lower sixes. I sold half in the low to mid eights, but still hold a few hundred. It’s sold off in aftermarket. The markets are closed today, so people booked some profits into the weekend.
I will buy more on any serious pullbacks. I suspect Ackman will help steer management decisions to maximize shareholder value. I assume HTZ MGMT likes that Ackman is aboard. HTZ may have to raise a few hundred million and see this as a huge boost to their success.
Looks like the big house has released a report blaming China for the “covid” called, Lab leak.
Another shot at CCP, which I suspect they won’t like!
The supposed independent Federal Reserve was so sanguine to help out with the many trillions of inflationary fiscal spending from the Biden regime, but all of a sudden become very hawkish and willfully ignorant.
“Regarding fiscal policy, Powell called the federal debt “unsustainable in the long term,” while emphasizing that “no one really knows how much further we can go.” He underscored the importance of bipartisan cooperation to address ballooning costs in Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.”
Fed Chair Powell Says Tariffs Lead To ‘Temporary Rise In Inflation’
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted the growing risk of higher inflation and slower growth tied to unexpectedly large trade tariffs rolled out earlier this month by the Donald Trump administration.
In remarks delivered Wednesday at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said that growth has softened in the first quarter of 2025, while inflation is “still running a bit above our 2% objective.”
The Fed Chair highlighted that surveys from households and businesses showed a notable deterioration in sentiment.
Uncertainty around trade policy has been the dominant driver, causing many forecasters to cut their full-year outlooks. Nevertheless, most estimates still point to moderate, positive growth ahead.
“The new administration is in the process of implementing a substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: Trade immigration, fiscal policy and deregulation. These policies are still evolving and their effects on the economy remain highly uncertain,” Powell said.
Inflation Eased But Tariffs Pose Fresh Risks
Inflation is cooling, but not fast enough. Total Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) prices—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 2.3% year-over-year through March. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, climbed 2.6%.
These figures are well below the 2022 highs but still exceed the Fed’s 2% target. Powell noted that inflationary progress continues “at a gradual pace,” and that the central bank remains alert to any threats of reacceleration.
“Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation,” he said.
While some of that impact may be short-lived, Powell cautioned that it could persist depending on how long the price pressures take to pass through the economy.
The Fed’s dual mandate—maximum employment and price stability—could be tested in the months ahead if inflation continues to rise even as growth slows. Should the two goals come into conflict, Powell said the Fed would weigh how far the economy is from each and the likely time needed to meet both targets.
“For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance,” Powell said.
During the Q&A session, Powell reiterated the Fed’s role in ensuring that inflation shocks from tariffs remain temporary. “Our role is to make sure that this will be a one-time increase in prices and not something that turns into an ongoing inflation process,” he said.
Asked whether tariffs could result in a supply shock, Powell acknowledged the risk of persistence. “It can take time to resolve, and what would have been a one-time inflation shock could be extended—perhaps more persistent—and we would worry about that.”
On immigration and labor market dynamics, Powell noted a decline in immigration could tighten labor supply, but layoffs in government-funded sectors have not yet materially affected the national workforce of 170 million people. “We’re really hearing significant layoffs in cities with universities and research hospitals,” he said, though the total economic impact remains hard to quantify.
Regarding fiscal policy, Powell called the federal debt “unsustainable in the long term,” while emphasizing that “no one really knows how much further we can go.” He underscored the importance of bipartisan cooperation to address ballooning costs in Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.
On market speculation about a so-called “Fed put”—the idea that the central bank would intervene if markets plunge—Powell was unequivocal: “I’m going to say no.”
While he acknowledged that markets are currently facing high levels of uncertainty, especially around policy changes and inflation, he made clear that the Fed’s decisions are not driven by equity market volatility alone.
He indicated that both equity and fixed-income markets are functioning in an order way, dismissing speculations of Treasuries dumping from foreign investors.
“Market is processing historically unique developments,” he said.
The Fed Chair also confirmed that the central bank stands ready to provide U.S. dollars to foreign central banks via its standing swap lines in the event of global liquidity strains.
As for artificial intelligence, Powell described the technology’s potential as “truly remarkable,” but cautioned that its long-term labor impact remains uncertain. “It may be the case that AI replaces more jobs than it creates—we just don’t know,” he said.
2025 Benzinga.com.
Suddenly, we have a big problem. The Fed is orchestrated like all central bankers or money changers.
The Fed also withdrew credit in 1929-1930. Tariffs, whites, Christianity, and nationalism will be blamed this time around.
That’s right! They put Trump in the Big house, or that will be the story.
The Trump administration will have to work around the Federal reserve. It is obvious the Powell is a leftist democrat helping out the Biden
Regime especially when he unexpectedly cut rates by 50 basis points right before the election.
“We don’t know” Reminds me of the Fast Times At Ridgemont High scene:
I like that. I don’t know. That’s nice!
Mr. Hand, will I pass this class? Gee, Mr. Spicoli, I don’t know!
Gosh darn, you must be my age. I watched that movie in high school. 1982, I think.
It’s a timeless classic.
Gold front month futures price will seek 3400 as the next resistance level. 3200 is now support.
Depending on how the Atlanta Fed is calculating GDP growth, GDP growth may actually turn positive.
CCP China also knows war is coming, too, and are also acting on behalf of their national security. It’s just not about a tariff war, but something deeper….
Fortune – China has stopped exporting rare earths to everyone, not just the U.S., cutting off critical materials for tech, autos, aerospace, and defense
After President Donald Trump unveiled his so-called reciprocal tariffs on “Liberation Day,” China retaliated with its own duties and export controls on rare earth minerals, which are critical to the tech, auto, aerospace, and defense sectors. So far, those export controls have translated to a halt across the board, cutting off the U.S. and other countries, according to the New York Times.
China is exploiting a highly lopsided advantage it has in global trade as it hits back against President Donald Trump’s tariffs: rare earths.
After Trump unveiled his “Liberation Day” tariffs on April 2, China retaliated on April 4 with its own duties as well as export controls on several rare earth minerals and magnets made from them.
So far, those export controls have translated to a halt across the board, cutting off the U.S. and other countries, according to the New York Times.
That’s because any exports of the minerals and magnets now require special licenses, but Beijing has yet to fully establish a system for issuing them, the report said.
In the meantime, shipments of rare earths have been halted at many ports, with customs officials blocking exports to any country, including to the U.S. as well as Japan and Germany, sources told the Times. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued export restrictions alongside the General Administration of Customs, prohibiting Chinese businesses from any engagement with U.S. firms, especially defense contractors.
While the Trump administration unveiled tariff exemptions on a range of key tech imports late Friday night, China’s magnet exports were still halted through the weekend, industry sources told the Times.
Beijing’s export halt is notable because China has a stranglehold on global supplies of rare earths and magnets derived from them.
They also represent an asymmetric advantage in that rare earths constitute a small share of China’s exports but have an outsize impact on trade partners like the U.S., which relies on them as critical inputs for the auto, chip, aerospace, and defense industries.
“The purpose of the Chinese government’s lawful implementation of these export controls is to better safeguard national security and interests, and to fulfill international obligations related to non-proliferation,” China’s U.S. embassy said in a statement. “These rare earth materials have dual-use potential for both civilian and military applications, and imposing export controls on such items is a common international practice.”
National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett addressed the situation on Monday, acknowledging concern and saying, “Rare earths are a part of lots of the economy.”
“The rare earth limits are being studied very carefully, and they’re concerning, and we’re thinking about all the options right now,” he told reporters outside the White House.
China’s export restrictions also put Trump’s attempts to gain control of Greenland in a fresh light. The self-governing Danish island possesses one of the world’s largest known rare earth deposits.
Vice President JD Vance visited Greenland earlier this month, despite repeated pushback from Denmark against U.S. rhetoric.
“We need Greenland for national security and even international security, and we’re working with everybody involved to try and get it,” Trump said in an address to Congress last month.
Meanwhile, Trump has also been pursuing a deal with Ukraine to develop rare earth supplies. He said in February he wanted “the equivalent of, like, $500 billion worth of rare earths.” Those talks are ongoing.
Last month, Trump signed an executive order that directed federal agencies to identify mines and government-owned land that could help increase rare earth production.
The Trump administration is also drafting another executive order to clear the way for stockpiling deep-sea metals to offset China’s control of rare earth supply chains, sources told the Financial Times.
Milei Risks Reigniting Inflation by Floating Argentina’s Peso
(Bloomberg) — Every morning, Carlos Abons and his six employees visit hardware stores around Buenos Aires, delivering electrical supplies and encouraging customers to place new orders with his family-run business. But this Monday was different for them.
President Javier Milei was about to debut his plan to dismantle most of the currency controls in place for the past five years, a core pillar of Argentina’s new $20 billion program with the International Monetary Fund. In the streets of Buenos Aires, Abons ordered his team to hold on.
“We decided not to push to sell,” said the 73-year-old salesman from Dalessandri, a distributor of electrical materials. “Our sales were zero.”
His fears that the newly floating currency could leave him selling products for less than it would cost to replace them were immediately confirmed by traders Monday morning. The peso depreciated 10% when official markets opened, weakening to 1,195 per dollar from 1,076 at Friday’s close.
Milei’s decision to ease currency controls is having an impact in the real economy. Retailers and importers are cautiously adjusting their prices as the peso weakens. And some fear it could spark inflation, a giant that Milei managed to mostly tackle in his first year in office. The question is whether this time could be different.
Private consulting firms have raised their inflation forecasts for 2025 even as they express optimism about Milei’s new economic policies. The libertarian president is floating the peso before key midterm elections in October, but after achieving fiscal and trade surpluses during his first year in office.
Half of the effect of the peso’s depreciation will be concentrated in the next three months, according to Juan Pablo Ronderos, a partner in charge of economics and markets at Argentine consultancy MAP. Ronderos raised MAP’s forecast for annual inflation by 10 percentage points to 33%.
“We are concerned about the pace of core inflation in March, and to this will be added a pass-through of the devaluation,” Ronderos said.
Other firms to raise their forecasts include consultancy FMyA, which now sees inflation at 32% this year instead of the 25% it forecast last week.
Many traders of imported products have decided to immediately pass on the 10% exchange rate jump to their customers. The reason is simple: Many products are invoiced in dollars, but expressed in pesos at the official exchange rate of the day. Some prices for domestic products, many of which have imported inputs, are also rising.
“We are considering a 10% increase for domestic products,” Abons said. “They are surely going to increase and when I go to replace it I could probably lose money.”
Economists and businesses see two reasons why inflation isn’t expected to get out hand for now, compared to other abrupt Argentine devaluations in recent years. One is there is widespread confidence in Milei’s economic program and many people believe the peso won’t continue to fall aggressively. The other is that demand is so depressed that companies simply cannot afford to raise prices sharply.
Retailers are in a delicate position. On the one hand, imported products became more expensive overnight. On the other, there is little appetite in the market to absorb higher prices.
“Passing on a 10% direct increase to the consumer all at once is risky with such low demand,” said Manuel Loitegui, product manager of the Puppis chain of pet stores, which imports nearly everything from China.
In the construction materials industry, the pattern is similar. Those who sell imported products have passed on their costs directly.
“There were some adjustments, but my feeling is that nobody wants this to go to hell,” said Pablo Gaitán, who runs Corralón Ciudadela, a lumberyard outside Buenos Aires. “We try to be careful. We all want to sell.”
Fernando Furci, the director general of the Argentine Chamber of Importers, is used to sales grinding to a halt for days during this kind of event. However, he believes that importers behaved differently this time.
“Some are delivering goods with open invoices, and settling the prices later,” he said, adding that it shows real confidence in the situation. “Demand is weak. Margins are slim. Companies are studying every move. Nobody is in a position to act aggressively.”
“Shock Therapy” is a weekly analysis column focused on finance and markets in Argentina.
Warm numbers that may not mean much, given the potential for tariff front running…..
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.5% Cons: 0.4% Prev: 0.7%
Retail Control (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.4% Cons: 0.6% Prev: 1.3%
Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 1.4% Cons: 1.3% Prev: 0.2%
Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 4.60% Cons: Prev: 3.11%
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.8% Cons: Prev: 0.8%
Nothing big here….
Capacity Utilization Rate (Mar)
Act: 77.8% Cons: 78.0% Prev: 78.2%
Industrial Production (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 1.30% Cons: Prev: 1.44%
Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)
Act: -0.3% Cons: -0.2% Prev: 0.8%
Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 1.0%
It really is all about national security and war preparation. Japan is crapping in its pants at the thought of CCP control.
“He envisions reaching agreements with Japan and other military allies so they could come up with a collective effort to apply economic pressure on China.”
_____________
Trump to Join Japan Talks Today on Tariffs, Military Support
(Bloomberg) — US President Donald Trump said he’ll attend a meeting Wednesday with Japan to negotiate tariffs, American military support and “trade fairness.”
“Hopefully something can be worked out which is good (GREAT!) for Japan and the USA!” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.
The Treasury and Commerce departments are leading the discussions in Washington.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said Japan is likely to be prioritized because it stepped forward quickly. He envisions reaching agreements with Japan and other military allies so they could come up with a collective effort to apply economic pressure on China.
Japan’s economic revitalization minister Ryosei Akazawa, who described his appointment as US trade negotiator as “nerve-wracking,” will look to iron out the first deal with a trading partner since Trump hit about 60 trading partners with sweeping tariffs before granting a 90-day reprieve on the highest rates for talks to take place.
Trump administration officials have expressed confidence that many countries want to negotiate to reduce their own tariffs and allow better access to their markets for American companies. A delegation from South Korea is scheduled to meet with US trade officials next week.
US-China Impasse
Among the world’s major trading powers yet to commit to talks so far, though, is China.
Earlier on Wednesday, Bloomberg News reported that Beijing would be willing to start discussions under certain conditions, including that the US show more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of Trump’s cabinet and that a point person for talks is designated.
China replaced its trade representative as Beijing and Washington remain at an impasse over the conditions for talks. Beijing has named Li Chenggang as vice commerce minister and trade envoy, replacing Wang Shouwen, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Taiwan live in a bad neighborhood. Big brother is too far away.
A 21% overnight rate doesn’t hurt either….
Why the ruble has been the world’s strongest currency this year
Russia’s ruble is the top-performing currency of 2025 relative to the US dollar.
Greenback weakness and Russian interest rates have strengthened the ruble.
But a stronger currency could weigh on Russia’s export revenue.
The Russian ruble is dominating currency markets, bolstered by wartime monetary policy and a sliding US dollar.
So far this year, the tender is up 38% against the greenback in over-the-counter trading, making it 2025’s top performer, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Ruble gains even exceed those of gold, which has hit record highs this month amid geopolitical turmoil.
On the one hand, a dollar slump is amplifying ruble strength. The US Dollar Index has reached multi-year lows, a surprising side-effect of Washington’s trade war on the world. The sharp plunge suggests that rising US tariffs are undoing the currency’s safe-haven appeal, and analysts have gone as far as to warn of a dollar “confidence crisis.”
But domestic factors are at play for the ruble, too.
In the past months, the Kremlin’s military spending spree has kicked up inflation, prompting Russia’s central bank to boost interest rates to 21%. Hawkish monetary policy is almost always a boon for currency strength and could remain a long-standing tailwind for the ruble.
Capital Economics suspects that rates will have to stay elevated until at least the second half of the year. Russian inflation is holding above 10%, Tuesday data shows.
Bloomberg adds that high-yielding ruble assets are accelerating demand, prompting foreign investors to seek out access to the currency. The emerging carry trade — where investors borrow in cheaper tender to finance lucrative ruble investments — is thanks to the country’s shifting geopolitical situation, with investors encouraged by a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.
But while ruble strength might cheer traders, the Russian government likely prefers the opposite. Appreciating currencies tend to diminish export revenue, threatening to weigh on the nation’s budget. Consider also that oil prices are plunging, dimming outlooks for the oil-exporting country.
China cancels Boeing orders! What a shock!
Time to start setting up morgues near the grand canyon.
Nah. Just dump the bodies there. Morgues are too expensive.
Were gonna burn them anyway!
That’s right. According to Ezekiel 38 and 39, that’s how Israel rids itself of the bodies.
Dollar’s Link to US Treasury Yields Weakens as Confidence Cracks
(Bloomberg) — The traditional relationship between the dollar and Treasury yields is the weakest in three years as investors rethink the safety of US assets in times of stress.
The dollar’s rapid decline has been caused by investors pulling out of US assets as the Trump administration’s trade war risks sending the economy into a recession. Meanwhile, yields on US long-term debt remain near 17-month highs.
Usually, higher bond yields are supportive of the US currency. But in this case, the two have diverged as more investors question the dollar’s haven status and central role in the global financial system. Options positioning shows show that traders expect more losses for the dollar.
“The dislocation between the dollar, yields, and traditional risk proxies is striking, and increasingly reminiscent of past stress episodes,” Danske Bank A/S analysts including Jens Naervig Pedersen wrote in a note.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell last week by the most since November 2022 and extended declines on Monday. Roughly two-thirds of options traded in the past week targeted a weaker dollar against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc, Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. data show.
Last week was only the third time in more than 50 years that the dollar declined more than 2.5% while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by at least 25 basis points, Pedersen said. The other occasions were in July 1985, during the so-called Plaza Accord aimed at devaluing the dollar, and in May 2009. Both of those episodes “were followed by sustained dollar weakness,” he said.
The options market suggests traders are positioning for such a development. So-called risk reversals, a barometer of investor sentiment that measures the premium on options to sell the greenback over those to buy it, show traders wagering on a weaker dollar over many time spans, from the next week to the next year. It’s the first time since early 2020 that all tenors of risk reversals have shown that trend.
“There has been a lot of focus over the past week on the pressure on Treasuries and the shifting correlations to the dollar,” said Alvaro Vivanco, head of strategy at TJM FX. “Selling away from US assets but without consistent panic could be the right framework over the next few weeks to months.”
The dollar-yields correlation is at the lowest since the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when haven flows supported the greenback even as it decoupled from Treasury moves. Today, it’s the opposite: the dollar is no longer benefiting from its haven status, and the dislocation reflects an accelerating exodus from U.S. assets.
“The sustainability of the greenback as a reserve currency is slowly put under question,” said Alberto Gallo, chief investment office at Andromeda Capital Management. “There is damage to the US brand and the ability of investors to keep duration in the long end.”
From Bloomberg this morning;
Respite from the turmoil
Take a breath, everyone.
Markets are showing signs of stability for the first time in what seems like years (actually, it’s been 13 days since “Liberation Day’’), so here’s a look at where we stand:
•Treasuries rose yesterday after a five-day selloff that sent 10-year yields surging the most in over two decades, and they’re little changed today. Still, the risk premium to hold the 10-year has climbed to the highest in a decade on concern Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy will sap investor confidence in US government bonds.
•The S&P 500 has surged 12% from its intraday low of last week. Tech, industrial and financial shares have gained the most. Still, Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey, out today, shows investor sentiment regarding economic prospects is the most negative in three decades. That pessimism isn’t yet fully reflected in their asset allocation, which could mean more losses for US stocks.
•MSCI’s emerging market stock index is gaining for a fourth straight day and is on the verge of erasing its loss for the year. India became the first major market to fully rebound from the April 2 tariff announcements. Citi on Monday downgraded its view on developing-nation stocks to underweight.
•The dollar is still under pressure, with a Bloomberg index of the greenback headed for a sixth straight drop (although the move is tiny for now). That’s the longest streak of declines in more than a year, and not a great sign for US assets overall.
The bond rebound is particularly reassuring because last week’s rise in yields threatened to deal the economy another hit by pushing up the cost of all kinds of loans.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved to tamp down concerns in a Bloomberg Television interview, saying he has tools to steady the market if needed. He also said there’s no evidence that overseas governments are selling their stockpiles of Treasuries.
Still, investors are on edge for further developments in the trade war.
“We’re not saying the bottoms are in — we’re hopeful they are — but things can flare up at any time,’’ said Adam Phillips, managing director of investments at EP Wealth Advisors. “One press conference or post on X could spark new headwinds. We’re not in the clear yet.”
In Oceania, El Salvador seems to have been chosen as the penal colony for criminals. Trump’s Ministry of Love can send those deemed to be seditious down to El Salvador….
Trump doubles down on sending American ‘criminals’ to foreign prisons
President Donald Trump on Monday doubled down on his idea of sending U.S. citizens to foreign prisons, telling El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele he wanted to send “homegrown criminals” to his country next, according to a video posted by Bukele’s office on X.
The comments came as Trump welcomed Bukele, a key partner in his migrant deportations, to the White House amid controversy over the Supreme Court saying the administration should “facilitate” the return of a migrant from Maryland wrongfully sent to a notorious Salvadoran mega-prison.
As the two men entered the Oval Office, before reporters were allowed in the room, Trump discussed his proposal to send what he called American “criminals” accused of violent crimes to El Salvador and told Bukele he needed to build more prisons to house them.
“Homegrown criminals next,” Trump said, according to a livestream posted by Bukele’s office. “I said homegrowns are next, the homegrowns. You gotta build about five more places.”
Bukele was heard responding “alright” and others in the room laughed.
“It’s not big enough,” Trump added
.
Trump and various White House officials have repeatedly floated the idea of sending U.S. citizens to El Salvador and other places — something legal experts have said would be flatly unconstitutional.
On Monday, during a spray with reporters, Trump said his team was “studying” the issue.
“If it’s a homegrown criminal, I have no problem,” Trump said. “Now we’re studying the laws right now, Pam [Bondi] is studying. If we can do that, that’s good.”
“And I’m talking about violent people. I’m talking about really bad people. Really bad people. Every bit as bad as the ones coming in,” he continued.
When Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the proposal from Bukele back in early February, he called the it “an act of extraordinary friendship.” Though at the time, Rubio also noted there would be constitutional questions about such a move, saying there are “obviously legalities involved.”
Bukele on Monday said he was “very eager to help” the Trump administration.
“In fact, Mr. President, you have 350 million people to liberate. You know, but to liberate 350 million people, you have to imprison some,” Bukele said.
The existing order has to be replaced. There is no longer a need to keep the dollar system going. It has run it’s course as all fiat systems do. Trump is in place to pull the rug out from under it! So, war it is. Austerity is coming! The beginning of sorrows. Keep an eye on Taiwan. A Chinese embargo of Taiwan will escalate to a naval stand off which could start the real kinetic trouble.
What I find surprising is that most of the press is not reporting on this. The goal of the globalists is to keep Americans and Canadians in the dark up until the bombs start dropping.
From what I see, virtually all I observe are clueless.
Get out of the blue areas and into the more rural red areas post haste AND PREPARE.
Ditto! It’s as if the average person is intentionally being kept in the dark. I know many young people, in their thirties, that rarely cook from scratch and have no pantry or stock any food. People are so spoiled by convenience it’s scary! Starvation will become a serious threat when the system freezes up. Hard choices will have to be made. Remember the 10 virgins.
As you say, PREPARE!
Newsweek article today
China’s Strategic Expansion in the Pacific
Overview
China has been quietly extending its military reach across the Pacific by building ports, airports, and communications projects in key locations. These projects, which appear civilian, are actually “strategic nodes” that could isolate the U.S. and its allies in the event of war.
Key Points
Strategic Nodes: At least 50 nodes in 11 Pacific Island countries.
Investment: Approximately $3.55 billion in grants and loans.
Companies Involved: Chinese state-owned companies with ties to the defense sector.
Implications
Regional Influence: China aims to reshape regional power dynamics and challenge U.S.-led alliances.
Military Capabilities: The network could make it difficult for the U.S. and its allies to operate in the Pacific.
Future Threats: The infrastructure could facilitate an invasion of Taiwan and isolate the U.S.
Recent Developments
Ballistic Missile Test: China fired a missile into the Pacific Ocean in the economic waters of Kiribati.
Live-Fire Exercises: China conducted live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea, affecting commercial flights.
Naval Operations: PLA Navy ships circumnavigated Australia.
Companies Involved
China Communications Construction Company (CCCC)
Huawei Technologies
China Railway Engineering Corporation
China Overseas Engineering Group
China Civil Engineering Construction Corp
China Harbor Engineering Company
Sinohydro Corporation
The three bloc powers are coming together. China will head up Eastasia and the US will lead Oceania. England and London will be Airstrip One.
The way the Communists took over England, saying you’re English can land you in jail. Soon, It will be politically expedient to declare that they are from Oceania. The European governments are awful Marxist regimes. Same goes for the Commonwealth. USA needs to be shown that nationalism is evil and what was the cause of WWIII.
As O’Brien told Winston Smith, perhaps the wars are real, perhaps they aren’t.
When and with who do you think a war will start? I wonder what we can do if we’re attacked on US soil. What is everyone doing to survive this?
When do you think this will happen? Why is it important to get out of the blue areas? Do you really believe that we’re going to be bombed? How can someone protect themselves from that? I’m beginning to feel like a hunted deer in the woods. God have mercy every day it’s something else to break one’s spirit.
Really? You ask me these questions? My unique and accurate analysis is dispensed freely to anyone who will listen. I answer these questions every day.
The problem with some of my readers is that they are just as prone to succumbing to logic fallacies, analysis paralysis, bias, and cognitive dissonance, as the typical person.
I’ve been warning my reader for years now about the expiration of QE, the loss of the dollar as the reserve given the escalating interest costs, as well as the growing fiscal and trade deficits.
I’ve clearly been stating that the end of the current global trading arrangement would, by function, result in a global conflict or a force majeure. The continuation of the current global trading arrangement just put off the inevitable.
CCP China was intent on draining as much revenue as possible through trade until the United States said it had enough. The Trump regime is clearly stating they have had enough. This current system could have persisted for a few more years as China was content to continue growing through their export driven economy.
But the problem is that the longer this current arrangement persisted, the worst the end result would be when it finally did unravel. Better to do it now than to wait even longer.
When the end of the road came to this current trade mechanism, circumstances would unfold the way we are seeing them. At which point, we have been predicting that CCP China would gear up for a hot War to confront the United States.
CCP China has been planning for this inevitability for decades. Their government officials often boasted and bragged about how they would beat the US in a hot war and that the US was stupid. This goes back to the 90s and aughts.
What’s so difficult here? Is it your unwillingness to accept it?
My wife does some business with a local coffee shop. The owner rents space for meetings and lectures on weeknights for $25/hr and has booked a new client – a Death Doula. He is certified too. $15 a head and the place fills up. It appears that there are a lot of people having difficulty with the promise made in Genesis 2:17.
I was badly injured, leaving me with PTSD and CRPS which both affect my memory and at times cognitive abilities. I forget things easily. It gets scary at times.
I wonder how this war will come about because most countries’ citizens are vaxxed if I remember correctly. The other thing that I see is that all these country’s leaders are all in the same club – aren’t they all satanists? I don’t know how that plays out on the world stage, however. I’ve gotten to the point of being skeptical about close to everything.
I feel something coming however – it’s like how you ache before it rains. I’ve talked to others who feel it too.
Trump is being upfront about what we are facing unlike other leaders worldwide.