President Donald Trump has issued an ominous new justification for his tariff hikes, saying products need to be made in the United States in case it goes to ‘war’.
Notes to reader:
This supposed tariff war was truly never about “fair trade”. It was always about national security and preparing the US for the upcoming global conflict. President Trump knows war is coming and he is the only national politician who is warning his people. He’s now making his objectives public and my readers must listen.
And while CCP leader, Xi Jinping, can claim there are no winners in any trade “war”, the US will be less of a loser when war comes. Thus, it’s imperative that USA, Inc. figure out how to decouple from China as soon as possible.
In this regard, President Trump has his work cut out for him, as all the prior presidents going back to Nixon developed policies to build up CCP China at America’s expense.
As QE expires, the Fed has been running out of easy options. Thanks to all the prior presidents who insisted on running ever larger fiscal and trade deficits, Trump has to deal with the ramifications of a dying global dollar policy.
Because there is probably less than three years left before the global conflict that will involve China and the United States commences, Trump has been extremely active in reshaping the current global order to suit America’s objectives.
Trump has pulled off the bandages to reveal the festering, stinking wound that “fair trade” represented to America.
Xi still claims that there is a trade war, but there really is none. The goal of the US government is to separate from CCP China as much as possible. Xi is still thinking he needs to somehow counter with more trade war rhetoric, but he is fighting another war in which he’s swinging at ghosts.
As these sets of circumstances progress, much of Southeast Asian trade will align with China, as the United States endeavors to reconfigure its supply chain to the Western hemisphere.
Essentially, the United States will eventually have to cut bait with nations like Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan if it is to truly decouple from the Chinese economy.
I find it extremely interesting that President Trump has recently become more vocal in declaring that the United States is aligned with the God of the Bible and Jesus Christ. I am certain this is no coincidence, since he is probably aware that he will be the sitting president as World War III unfolds, and the USA will need as much Divine intervention as possible.
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Trump says he’s prepping for ‘war’ with China as he angers Xi Jinping
The Daily Mail
•President Donald Trump has issued an ominous new justification for his tariff hikes, saying products need to be made in the United States in case it goes to ‘war’.
•Trump has sparked fears of a recession with his crackdown on foreign imports which is part of a campaign to have more goods made in America and ramp up manufacturing.
•In his latest explanation of the tariff policy he suggested it was also necessary in case there was a future war.
Trump made the comments on Air Force One on Sunday while talking about possible future pharmaceutical tariffs.
He said: ‘We’re going to have our drugs made in the United States so that in case of war, in case of whatever, we’re not relying on China and various other countries, which is not a good idea.
‘As Trump left open the possibility of more tariffs to come, Chinese President Xi Jinping had his own words of warning as he gave a statement in Vietnam during a tour of Southeast Asia tour.
‘There are no winners in a trade war, or a tariff war,’ Xi wrote in an editorial jointly published in Vietnamese and Chinese official media.
‘Our two countries should resolutely safeguard the multilateral trading system, stable global industrial and supply chains, and open and cooperative international environment.’
He added: ‘Trade war and tariff war will produce no winner, and protectionism will lead nowhere.’
Xi is making the trip to shore up alliances and find solutions for the trade war with Trump. After Vietnam, the Chinese president is expected to go to Malaysia and then Cambodia.China has been a top target for the White House.
Trump put a 90-day pause on many of his on-again, off-again reciprocal tariffs but left in place a 145 per cent import tax on goods from China.
In response, Beijing suspended exports of certain rare earth minerals and magnets that are crucial for the world’s car, semiconductor and aerospace industries.
The move could impact American factories across the country, particularly in the auto industry. Many of the minerals make up components of a vehicle’s motor.
Trump’s top economic adviser said China’s action was ‘concerning.’
‘They’re concerning. And we’re thinking about all the options right now,’ Kevin Hassett said outside of the White House.
‘Rare earths are a part of lots of the economy. It’s a little bit of the value add to the US economy, but a crucial part of the value added.’
He said the administration was helping small businesses that relied on supplies out of China find alternative resources.
The officials understand ‘their concerns and are thinking about how best to address them, including by finding other suppliers that are not on the current list that China is on,’ he said.
Until 2023, China produced 99 per cent of the world’s supply of heavy rare earth metals.
China also produces 90 percent of the world’s nearly 200,000 tons a year of rare earth magnets, which are far more powerful than conventional iron magnets.
‘The White House is concerned about China. Period,’ Hassett noted.
And there may be more tariffs to come.
Trump said on Sunday that semiconductor tariffs will ‘take place in the very near future,’ but expressed some ‘flexibility’ regarding tariffs on products such as iPhones and tablets.
‘The tariffs will be in place in the not-too-distant future,’ he said.
The U.S. markets opened slightly higher Monday off the news that smartphones, computers, memory chips and several other categories of products will be exempt from tariffs.
Trump, however, warned they might still be targeted although he said he will be ‘flexible’ on the matter.
‘That’s going to be announced very soon, and we’ll be discussing it, but we’ll also talk to companies. You know, you have to show a certain flexibility. Nobody should be so rigid.’
Meanwhile there is growing concern in corporate America about the volatility the tariff war is causing in the global stock markets.
A majority of America’s top business executives are worried the country could enter a recession soon, a new survey found.
In a poll of more than 300 CEOs conducted in April, 62 percent said they see a recession or other economic downturn in the next six months, according to Chief Executive, an industry group that runs the survey. That’s up from 48 percent who said the same in March.
‘Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession,’ Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, told NBC’s Meet the Press on Sunday.
‘And I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well.’
Warm numbers that may not mean much, given the potential for tariff front running…..
Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.5% Cons: 0.4% Prev: 0.7%
Retail Control (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.4% Cons: 0.6% Prev: 1.3%
Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 1.4% Cons: 1.3% Prev: 0.2%
Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 4.60% Cons: Prev: 3.11%
Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.8% Cons: Prev: 0.8%
It really is all about national security and war preparation. Japan is crapping in its pants at the thought of CCP control.
“He envisions reaching agreements with Japan and other military allies so they could come up with a collective effort to apply economic pressure on China.”
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Trump to Join Japan Talks Today on Tariffs, Military Support
(Bloomberg) — US President Donald Trump said he’ll attend a meeting Wednesday with Japan to negotiate tariffs, American military support and “trade fairness.”
“Hopefully something can be worked out which is good (GREAT!) for Japan and the USA!” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.
The Treasury and Commerce departments are leading the discussions in Washington.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said Japan is likely to be prioritized because it stepped forward quickly. He envisions reaching agreements with Japan and other military allies so they could come up with a collective effort to apply economic pressure on China.
Japan’s economic revitalization minister Ryosei Akazawa, who described his appointment as US trade negotiator as “nerve-wracking,” will look to iron out the first deal with a trading partner since Trump hit about 60 trading partners with sweeping tariffs before granting a 90-day reprieve on the highest rates for talks to take place.
Trump administration officials have expressed confidence that many countries want to negotiate to reduce their own tariffs and allow better access to their markets for American companies. A delegation from South Korea is scheduled to meet with US trade officials next week.
US-China Impasse
Among the world’s major trading powers yet to commit to talks so far, though, is China.
Earlier on Wednesday, Bloomberg News reported that Beijing would be willing to start discussions under certain conditions, including that the US show more respect by reining in disparaging remarks by members of Trump’s cabinet and that a point person for talks is designated.
China replaced its trade representative as Beijing and Washington remain at an impasse over the conditions for talks. Beijing has named Li Chenggang as vice commerce minister and trade envoy, replacing Wang Shouwen, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
Japan, South Korea, Philippines and Taiwan live in a bad neighborhood. Big brother is too far away.
A 21% overnight rate doesn’t hurt either….
Why the ruble has been the world’s strongest currency this year
Russia’s ruble is the top-performing currency of 2025 relative to the US dollar.
Greenback weakness and Russian interest rates have strengthened the ruble.
But a stronger currency could weigh on Russia’s export revenue.
The Russian ruble is dominating currency markets, bolstered by wartime monetary policy and a sliding US dollar.
So far this year, the tender is up 38% against the greenback in over-the-counter trading, making it 2025’s top performer, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Ruble gains even exceed those of gold, which has hit record highs this month amid geopolitical turmoil.
On the one hand, a dollar slump is amplifying ruble strength. The US Dollar Index has reached multi-year lows, a surprising side-effect of Washington’s trade war on the world. The sharp plunge suggests that rising US tariffs are undoing the currency’s safe-haven appeal, and analysts have gone as far as to warn of a dollar “confidence crisis.”
But domestic factors are at play for the ruble, too.
In the past months, the Kremlin’s military spending spree has kicked up inflation, prompting Russia’s central bank to boost interest rates to 21%. Hawkish monetary policy is almost always a boon for currency strength and could remain a long-standing tailwind for the ruble.
Capital Economics suspects that rates will have to stay elevated until at least the second half of the year. Russian inflation is holding above 10%, Tuesday data shows.
Bloomberg adds that high-yielding ruble assets are accelerating demand, prompting foreign investors to seek out access to the currency. The emerging carry trade — where investors borrow in cheaper tender to finance lucrative ruble investments — is thanks to the country’s shifting geopolitical situation, with investors encouraged by a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.
But while ruble strength might cheer traders, the Russian government likely prefers the opposite. Appreciating currencies tend to diminish export revenue, threatening to weigh on the nation’s budget. Consider also that oil prices are plunging, dimming outlooks for the oil-exporting country.
China cancels Boeing orders! What a shock!
Time to start setting up morgues near the grand canyon.
Nah. Just dump the bodies there. Morgues are too expensive.
Were gonna burn them anyway!
That’s right. According to Ezekiel 38 and 39, that’s how Israel rids itself of the bodies.
Dollar’s Link to US Treasury Yields Weakens as Confidence Cracks
(Bloomberg) — The traditional relationship between the dollar and Treasury yields is the weakest in three years as investors rethink the safety of US assets in times of stress.
The dollar’s rapid decline has been caused by investors pulling out of US assets as the Trump administration’s trade war risks sending the economy into a recession. Meanwhile, yields on US long-term debt remain near 17-month highs.
Usually, higher bond yields are supportive of the US currency. But in this case, the two have diverged as more investors question the dollar’s haven status and central role in the global financial system. Options positioning shows show that traders expect more losses for the dollar.
“The dislocation between the dollar, yields, and traditional risk proxies is striking, and increasingly reminiscent of past stress episodes,” Danske Bank A/S analysts including Jens Naervig Pedersen wrote in a note.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell last week by the most since November 2022 and extended declines on Monday. Roughly two-thirds of options traded in the past week targeted a weaker dollar against the euro, yen, and Swiss franc, Depository Trust & Clearing Corp. data show.
Last week was only the third time in more than 50 years that the dollar declined more than 2.5% while the 10-year Treasury yield rose by at least 25 basis points, Pedersen said. The other occasions were in July 1985, during the so-called Plaza Accord aimed at devaluing the dollar, and in May 2009. Both of those episodes “were followed by sustained dollar weakness,” he said.
The options market suggests traders are positioning for such a development. So-called risk reversals, a barometer of investor sentiment that measures the premium on options to sell the greenback over those to buy it, show traders wagering on a weaker dollar over many time spans, from the next week to the next year. It’s the first time since early 2020 that all tenors of risk reversals have shown that trend.
“There has been a lot of focus over the past week on the pressure on Treasuries and the shifting correlations to the dollar,” said Alvaro Vivanco, head of strategy at TJM FX. “Selling away from US assets but without consistent panic could be the right framework over the next few weeks to months.”
The dollar-yields correlation is at the lowest since the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, when haven flows supported the greenback even as it decoupled from Treasury moves. Today, it’s the opposite: the dollar is no longer benefiting from its haven status, and the dislocation reflects an accelerating exodus from U.S. assets.
“The sustainability of the greenback as a reserve currency is slowly put under question,” said Alberto Gallo, chief investment office at Andromeda Capital Management. “There is damage to the US brand and the ability of investors to keep duration in the long end.”
Data this morning isn’t really bad.
Export Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
Act: 0.0% Cons: 0.1% Prev: 0.5%
Import Price Index (MoM) (Mar)
Act: -0.1% Cons: 0.1% Prev: 0.2%
Export Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 2.4% Cons: Prev: 2.1%
Import Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
Act: 0.9% Cons: Prev: 2.0%
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr)
Act: -8.10 Cons: -12.80 Prev: -20.00
From Bloomberg this morning;
Respite from the turmoil
Take a breath, everyone.
Markets are showing signs of stability for the first time in what seems like years (actually, it’s been 13 days since “Liberation Day’’), so here’s a look at where we stand:
•Treasuries rose yesterday after a five-day selloff that sent 10-year yields surging the most in over two decades, and they’re little changed today. Still, the risk premium to hold the 10-year has climbed to the highest in a decade on concern Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy will sap investor confidence in US government bonds.
•The S&P 500 has surged 12% from its intraday low of last week. Tech, industrial and financial shares have gained the most. Still, Bank of America’s latest fund manager survey, out today, shows investor sentiment regarding economic prospects is the most negative in three decades. That pessimism isn’t yet fully reflected in their asset allocation, which could mean more losses for US stocks.
•MSCI’s emerging market stock index is gaining for a fourth straight day and is on the verge of erasing its loss for the year. India became the first major market to fully rebound from the April 2 tariff announcements. Citi on Monday downgraded its view on developing-nation stocks to underweight.
•The dollar is still under pressure, with a Bloomberg index of the greenback headed for a sixth straight drop (although the move is tiny for now). That’s the longest streak of declines in more than a year, and not a great sign for US assets overall.
The bond rebound is particularly reassuring because last week’s rise in yields threatened to deal the economy another hit by pushing up the cost of all kinds of loans.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent moved to tamp down concerns in a Bloomberg Television interview, saying he has tools to steady the market if needed. He also said there’s no evidence that overseas governments are selling their stockpiles of Treasuries.
Still, investors are on edge for further developments in the trade war.
“We’re not saying the bottoms are in — we’re hopeful they are — but things can flare up at any time,’’ said Adam Phillips, managing director of investments at EP Wealth Advisors. “One press conference or post on X could spark new headwinds. We’re not in the clear yet.”
White House will start interviewing candidates to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell this fall
Reuters –
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday said the White House will start interviewing candidates this fall to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May 2026.
Bessent, speaking with Bloomberg TV during a visit to Argentina, said that would give the Trump administration about six months lead time before Powell leaves office. He gave no further details.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he was not concerned about President Trump ousting Fed Chair Jerome Powell or challenging the independence of the Fed.
Bessent said he was not concerned about Trump ousting Powell or challenging the independence of the Fed. But he said he did see room for more discussion on the Fed’s role as a bank regulator.
“I’ve repeatedly said the Fed has two duties, and I believe that monetary policy is a jewel box that’s got to be preserved. And then they have regulatory policies. And I think we can have more of a discussion, because the Fed is one among three bank regulators. There’s the Fed, Comptroller of the Currency and the FDIC. So I think it’s very easy to delineate between the two,” he said.
Bessent said he had breakfast with Powell every week and they discussed a wide range of things. Asked if he had discussed contingency plans with Powell if financial stability risks flared, Bessent said, “Specifically, did we discuss some kind of break the glass? I think we’re a long way from that.”
He said he last saw Powell last week during a visit to the Federal Reserve, and did not hear particular concerns about recent developments in bond markets. “It seems like business as usual,” he added.
Where’s the Fed? Treasuries and USDX getting hammered and the Fed sits around and worries about tariffs and inflation. Rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Willful ignorance.
In Oceania, El Salvador seems to have been chosen as the penal colony for criminals. Trump’s Ministry of Love can send those deemed to be seditious down to El Salvador….
Trump doubles down on sending American ‘criminals’ to foreign prisons
President Donald Trump on Monday doubled down on his idea of sending U.S. citizens to foreign prisons, telling El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele he wanted to send “homegrown criminals” to his country next, according to a video posted by Bukele’s office on X.
The comments came as Trump welcomed Bukele, a key partner in his migrant deportations, to the White House amid controversy over the Supreme Court saying the administration should “facilitate” the return of a migrant from Maryland wrongfully sent to a notorious Salvadoran mega-prison.
As the two men entered the Oval Office, before reporters were allowed in the room, Trump discussed his proposal to send what he called American “criminals” accused of violent crimes to El Salvador and told Bukele he needed to build more prisons to house them.
“Homegrown criminals next,” Trump said, according to a livestream posted by Bukele’s office. “I said homegrowns are next, the homegrowns. You gotta build about five more places.”
Bukele was heard responding “alright” and others in the room laughed.
“It’s not big enough,” Trump added
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Trump and various White House officials have repeatedly floated the idea of sending U.S. citizens to El Salvador and other places — something legal experts have said would be flatly unconstitutional.
On Monday, during a spray with reporters, Trump said his team was “studying” the issue.
“If it’s a homegrown criminal, I have no problem,” Trump said. “Now we’re studying the laws right now, Pam [Bondi] is studying. If we can do that, that’s good.”
“And I’m talking about violent people. I’m talking about really bad people. Really bad people. Every bit as bad as the ones coming in,” he continued.
When Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the proposal from Bukele back in early February, he called the it “an act of extraordinary friendship.” Though at the time, Rubio also noted there would be constitutional questions about such a move, saying there are “obviously legalities involved.”
Bukele on Monday said he was “very eager to help” the Trump administration.
“In fact, Mr. President, you have 350 million people to liberate. You know, but to liberate 350 million people, you have to imprison some,” Bukele said.
The existing order has to be replaced. There is no longer a need to keep the dollar system going. It has run it’s course as all fiat systems do. Trump is in place to pull the rug out from under it! So, war it is. Austerity is coming! The beginning of sorrows. Keep an eye on Taiwan. A Chinese embargo of Taiwan will escalate to a naval stand off which could start the real kinetic trouble.
What I find surprising is that most of the press is not reporting on this. The goal of the globalists is to keep Americans and Canadians in the dark up until the bombs start dropping.
From what I see, virtually all I observe are clueless.
Get out of the blue areas and into the more rural red areas post haste AND PREPARE.
Ditto! It’s as if the average person is intentionally being kept in the dark. I know many young people, in their thirties, that rarely cook from scratch and have no pantry or stock any food. People are so spoiled by convenience it’s scary! Starvation will become a serious threat when the system freezes up. Hard choices will have to be made. Remember the 10 virgins.
As you say, PREPARE!
Newsweek article today
China’s Strategic Expansion in the Pacific
Overview
China has been quietly extending its military reach across the Pacific by building ports, airports, and communications projects in key locations. These projects, which appear civilian, are actually “strategic nodes” that could isolate the U.S. and its allies in the event of war.
Key Points
Strategic Nodes: At least 50 nodes in 11 Pacific Island countries.
Investment: Approximately $3.55 billion in grants and loans.
Companies Involved: Chinese state-owned companies with ties to the defense sector.
Implications
Regional Influence: China aims to reshape regional power dynamics and challenge U.S.-led alliances.
Military Capabilities: The network could make it difficult for the U.S. and its allies to operate in the Pacific.
Future Threats: The infrastructure could facilitate an invasion of Taiwan and isolate the U.S.
Recent Developments
Ballistic Missile Test: China fired a missile into the Pacific Ocean in the economic waters of Kiribati.
Live-Fire Exercises: China conducted live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea, affecting commercial flights.
Naval Operations: PLA Navy ships circumnavigated Australia.
Companies Involved
China Communications Construction Company (CCCC)
Huawei Technologies
China Railway Engineering Corporation
China Overseas Engineering Group
China Civil Engineering Construction Corp
China Harbor Engineering Company
Sinohydro Corporation
The three bloc powers are coming together. China will head up Eastasia and the US will lead Oceania. England and London will be Airstrip One.
The way the Communists took over England, saying you’re English can land you in jail. Soon, It will be politically expedient to declare that they are from Oceania. The European governments are awful Marxist regimes. Same goes for the Commonwealth. USA needs to be shown that nationalism is evil and what was the cause of WWIII.
As O’Brien told Winston Smith, perhaps the wars are real, perhaps they aren’t.
When and with who do you think a war will start? I wonder what we can do if we’re attacked on US soil. What is everyone doing to survive this?
When do you think this will happen? Why is it important to get out of the blue areas? Do you really believe that we’re going to be bombed? How can someone protect themselves from that? I’m beginning to feel like a hunted deer in the woods. God have mercy every day it’s something else to break one’s spirit.
Really? You ask me these questions? My unique and accurate analysis is dispensed freely to anyone who will listen. I answer these questions every day.
The problem with some of my readers is that they are just as prone to succumbing to logic fallacies, analysis paralysis, bias, and cognitive dissonance, as the typical person.
I’ve been warning my reader for years now about the expiration of QE, the loss of the dollar as the reserve given the escalating interest costs, as well as the growing fiscal and trade deficits.
I’ve clearly been stating that the end of the current global trading arrangement would, by function, result in a global conflict or a force majeure. The continuation of the current global trading arrangement just put off the inevitable.
CCP China was intent on draining as much revenue as possible through trade until the United States said it had enough. The Trump regime is clearly stating they have had enough. This current system could have persisted for a few more years as China was content to continue growing through their export driven economy.
But the problem is that the longer this current arrangement persisted, the worst the end result would be when it finally did unravel. Better to do it now than to wait even longer.
When the end of the road came to this current trade mechanism, circumstances would unfold the way we are seeing them. At which point, we have been predicting that CCP China would gear up for a hot War to confront the United States.
CCP China has been planning for this inevitability for decades. Their government officials often boasted and bragged about how they would beat the US in a hot war and that the US was stupid. This goes back to the 90s and aughts.
What’s so difficult here? Is it your unwillingness to accept it?
My wife does some business with a local coffee shop. The owner rents space for meetings and lectures on weeknights for $25/hr and has booked a new client – a Death Doula. He is certified too. $15 a head and the place fills up. It appears that there are a lot of people having difficulty with the promise made in Genesis 2:17.
I was badly injured, leaving me with PTSD and CRPS which both affect my memory and at times cognitive abilities. I forget things easily. It gets scary at times.
I wonder how this war will come about because most countries’ citizens are vaxxed if I remember correctly. The other thing that I see is that all these country’s leaders are all in the same club – aren’t they all satanists? I don’t know how that plays out on the world stage, however. I’ve gotten to the point of being skeptical about close to everything.
I feel something coming however – it’s like how you ache before it rains. I’ve talked to others who feel it too.
Trump is being upfront about what we are facing unlike other leaders worldwide.