Why wait for war in Taiwan to force a global reordering?
- Tariffs are an attempt by Trump to reorder the global economy away from China manufacturing.
- Taiwan and TSMC are at the heart of the current system of interconnected, global supply chains.
- Ben Thompson warns that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would make last week look tame.
In a world already shaken by economic shocks — from the pandemic to sweeping tariffs — there’s one scenario that would dwarf them all: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
This is the hypothetical Ben Thompson floats in the latest edition of Stratechery, a newsletter widely followed by tech industry insiders.
An invasion wouldn’t just be a military conflict; it would be a systemic rupture in the global economic order that underpins everything from iPhones to inflation forecasts.
Thompson reckons China would prevail militarily. The larger story isn’t about who controls Taipei — it’s about what happens when the world’s most essential supply chains are shattered. Taiwan isn’t just any island; it’s home to TSMC, the company responsible for manufacturing the most advanced semiconductors on Earth. Take that away, and the modern tech ecosystem buckles — taking with it the digital infrastructure of daily life.
This is so important that there’s even a theory quietly discussed among global security experts that Taiwan could threaten to destroy its giant chip fabs as a way to deter China from invading.
Thompson argues that regardless of who wins militarily, the economic result is the same: China, the global factory, is effectively cut off. Taiwan’s chip output vanishes. Global trade grinds lower. Inflation surges. Markets tank.
Recall the 2020 COVID supply chain chaos or last week’s market turmoil from Trump’s tariff barrage — now magnify that impact exponentially.
“A war over Taiwan,” Thompson wrote on Monday, “would put all of these to shame.”
Is war the only answer to resetting the system?
Of course, it’s not clear if, or when, China would invade Taiwan. And even if it did invade, it would face challenges, according to defense writer Michael Peck.
But what’s particularly striking is Thompson’s framing: War might not just break the system — it might be the only way to reset it. The post-World War II economic order, rebooted by Bretton Woods and supercharged by China’s entry into global markets, is showing its age. The US traded industrial capability for cheap goods and ballooning deficits. American manufacturing jobs vanished, supply chains lengthened, and the economic resilience of the US heartland hollowed out. (These are the areas where JD Vance’s anti-globalization message really resonates, by the way.)
Trump’s tariffs — clumsy, politically divisive, and economically painful — might still be preferable to waiting for a war to force change. As Thompson notes, the current system can’t be fixed without a stomach for hard trade-offs, and America seems unwilling to take the hit until it’s forced to.
So we return to the Taiwan question — if China invades, or how close we come. The prudent path, Thompson suggests, may be to pull China deeper into economic interdependence, betting that shared prosperity can delay or prevent disaster. But if that gamble fails, the cost won’t just be measured in GDP — it’ll be in decades of lost stability, broken industries, and a new global order forged not in peace, but in fire.
Link to original article:
https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-taiwan-china-invasion-explained-2025-4
Supreme Court allows Trump to enforce Alien Enemies Act for rapid deportations for now
By John Fritze, CNN
The Supreme Court on Monday allowed President Donald Trump to enforce the Alien Enemies Act for now, handing the White House a significant victory that will let immigration officials rely on a sweeping wartime authority to rapidly deport alleged gang members.
The unsigned decision in the case, the most closely watched emergency appeal pending at the Supreme Court, lets Trump invoke the 1798 law to speed removals while litigation over the act’s use plays out in lower courts. The court stressed that people deported going forward should receive notice they are subject to the act and an opportunity to have their removal reviewed.
The court’s three liberal justices dissented from the decision, and Justice Amy Coney Barrett, a member of the court’s conservative wing, partially dissented.
Trump framed his emergency appeal as a fight over judicial power and, specifically, US District Judge James Boasberg’s order that temporarily blocked the president from enforcing the Alien Enemies Act against five Venezuelans who sued and a broader class of people who might be affected – in other words, anyone else. By granting the president’s request, the Supreme Court has tossed out Boasberg’s orders.
Critically, the court made clear in its unsigned order that officials must give migrants subject to Trump’s Alien Enemies Act proclamation adequate notice that they are being removed pursuant to the wartime authority so that they have time to bring habeas complaints.
A key concern among attorneys representing the migrants has been that the government’s rush to remove migrants under the act leaves them with little to no time to file such legal claims.
“The notice must be afforded within a reasonable time and in such a manner as will allow them to actually seek habeas relief in the proper venue before such removal occurs,” the justices wrote, adding: “The detainees subject to removal orders under the AEA are entitled to notice and an opportunity to challenge their removal.”
CNN has reached out to the White House for comment.
The black governor of Maryland has to deal with a $3.3 billion deficit this fiscal year. When the white Republican governor left office in 2023, he presided over a $5 billion surplus. Now the cursed schvartze governor and the supermajority Democrats are proposing a reparations program. Get out of all blue and black areas! These non-Adamic people are cursed….
Record tax increase, massive budget cuts expected as Maryland Legislature ends session – Washington Times
Maryland state lawmakers were closing in on a $1.6 billion tax increase and $2 billion in budget cuts as their legislative session drew to a close Monday, as bills addressing reparations for Black residents and early release for long-term convicts were making their way to the governor’s desk for signatures.
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2025/apr/7/record-tax-increase-massive-budget-cuts-expected-maryland-legislature/
Good point! When goods don’t cross borders, armies will!
When armies cross borders, goods don’t.
That sounds so familiar!