Mr. Stone,
I’m just curious I have seen some wild stock price movements in several that I’m following like ROKU for example . What and who causes these wild swings in prices and do these movements tell us something?
Thanks,
Brad
What’s going on with stocks?
I take a look at Roku and it’s expected to be volatile. It only has 145 million shares outstanding and it is a popular stock. The problem with this type of company and its trading is that large investors can really move the shares. It has a high percentage of institutional ownership and any reconfiguring can really move the price. A stock like Roku is big enough in that small day traders have less of an effect than the typical smaller cap.
When it comes to the equity markets, the euphoria over Trump’s presidential victory is gradually being replaced with uncertainty and fear. In these instances, stocks like Roku are going to be extremely volatile. Smaller firms and tech companies, whose growth prospects are analyzed further into the future, will underperform relative to well-established industrials.
Wall Street is adjusting to the changes in the economic and fiscal policies of the Trump regime. This is to be expected and doesn’t portend to any type of protracted downturn in the financial markets. In this regard, I have taken a step back and have chosen to focus less on the day-to-day. I think much of it is more of a smoke screen than anything else.
The bigger picture
In this instance, I look at the gestalt of the financial and economic tableau, as well as changes to monetary policies, as a better predictor for choices I make.
For instance. Although the amount of US Treasury debt has remained relatively unchanged since the beginning of the year, due to the debt ceiling, the US Treasury is quickly depleting its cash, which is down about $500 billion from its high water mark. The deficit spending continues unabated.
The Federal Reserve continues to taper its roll off of US Treasuries, which is down to only $5 billion per month. As cash is drained from the overnight markets due to government deficit spending as the debt ceiling has not been increased, further accommodations to monetary policy will be made to offset any challenges.
I observe all the ostensible DOGE-inspired fiscal spending cuts and have been concluding that they don’t really matter all that much. Even if some of the items are cut out of the Federal government’s budget, many of them will be replaced by the private sector. The money will still be spent and inflation growth continues.
What is gold saying?
Given this rather confusing and unprecedented backdrop, we are observing gold continuing to move higher.
I’ve always recommended gold as it is the ultimate hedge against uncertainty and government foolishness. Gold has taken out $3,000 decisively and I suspect we should see $3,200 as the next level of resistance. Gold futures like even numbers and I see this as the next sensible level to watch.
I prefer gold over every other so-called uncertainty hedge. Gold has clearly demonstrated a long-term highly positive correlation between overall uncertainty and its price direction. In this regard, it easily outperforms Bitcoin and silver.
So, Instead of looking for looming stock market catastrophe, what I see is a period of adjustment with a lot of new factors. I can make a case that Trump’s economic and fiscal policies can be seen as being bullish in the longer run. But Wall Street hates uncertainty and smaller stocks, especially those in the growth and tech sectors, get hit first.
What about housing?
Despite all of the gloom being dispensed for the housing market, long-term investors are still making money. Renters and potential home buyers should be the gloomiest, because I don’t see rents and prices coming down, at least from my perspective. And I live in Northern Virginia. Certainly, there has been some slowdown, but I don’t see rents dropping nor prices falling.
Who should be gloomy?
There is a lot of gloom out there. Personally speaking, I’m certainly not gloomy. The asset markets continue to hold up and the streams of income these assets derive continue to grow. There are a lot of disenfranchised people who don’t own much of anything anymore and are unable to control their spending. These people have every right to feel gloomy. They lack discipline and can’t stop spending.
Wall Street investors, such as hedge funds and institutional traders, are just as confused as many of my readers. Deciphering this ongoing news feed can be taxing and many of these large institutions have itchy trigger fingers that respond to every headline. Personally, I’m not reading much into the daily movement of the stock indexes as some sort of conspiracy. Yes, the world is one big conspiracy, but sometimes stock movement is just the normal routine and is a result of behavioral and economic psychology.
I have lists of small cap stocks on my screens and these are the ones that are getting pummeled. Currently, I’m not trading the headlines on the smaller stocks aggressively, because larger holders often use the news feed in times of uncertainty to unload large positions. The larger and well established firms seem to be holding up better. Despite all of the turbulence in the major averages, they are still up tremendously over the past few years.
Although I am not really following the finer details of these ongoing circumstances, I too, am observing that not much headway will come from the DOGE cuts. Deficits will continue to be sustained and grow….
DOGE cuts will ‘in all probability’ increase the US deficit — by a lot: Report
Mary Papenfuss
The grant, contract and budget cuts in federal agencies, along with the crippling reductions of tens of thousands of government jobs, will “in all probability” end up increasing (by a lot), rather than decreasing the nation’s deficit, which has been the stated intent, notes a new report.
The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) hatchet man Elon Musk initially boasted that he would carve $2 trillion out of government spending — even the Trump administration works to slash the nation’s income via tax cuts that will largely accrue to the wealthy by $4.5 trillion. (The Republicans are also planning to increase military spending by $150 billion over the next five years.)
Now Musk is claiming he may reach half of that goal — $1 trillion in cuts — by the end of the year..
It’s impossible to know what has actually already been cut since Musk’s “receipts” have been relentlessly riddled with significant errors that all make it look as if he has saved far more than he actually has.
Jessica Riedl, a budget expert at the Manhattan Institute, recently estimated the actual savings so far at about $2 billion — one-tenth of 1 percent of Musk’s original goal of $2 trillion, The Atlantic noted in a report Friday.
Prediction markets currently expect a grand total of $1 billion in savings.
Many of the cuts will actually cost, including via the taxpayer salaries going to an army of lawyers from the Department of Justice battling a cascade of court cases against the government’s dismantling that many judges have already said appears to be illegal.
Damages from any illegal firings are likely also to be extremely pricey, along with buyouts and paying people on leave, who are doing absolutely no work for full salary just so Donald Trump can keep them out of the office.
Among the most massive costs will be the huge reduction in workers at the Internal Revenue Service, who are worth their weight in gold because of the taxes they collect, the key source of income for the country.
The IRS released a preliminary survey showing that it expects revenue to fall 10 percent, or $500 billion because of a shortage of IRS workers and a boost in tax cheats confident they can get away with breaking the law. Those losses would swamp any DOGE savings to date.
“The failure” of the DOGE enterprise was “preordained,” states the Atlantic. “There isn’t anything close to $1 trillion in waste, fraud, and abuse in the budget, despite Musk’s repeated statements to the contrary,” writes reporter Jonathan Chait.
Musk is also carving critical holes in the government that will have to be filled at some point before implosion by private companies — if not his, then others, with personnel likely paid far more than government workers. Some of Musk’s team of DOGE are reportedly making six-figure salaries, while veteran workers are getting the ax.
Musk’s SpaceX is already taking over key tasks in the Federal Aviation Administration, and FAA staffers have been told if they stand in the way, they risk being fired.
Another hit could be felt for years by businesses that lose their competitive edge over enterprises from other countries amid decimated federally funded research and development in medicine and technology.
Ultimately, Musk is managing to “incapacitate the government’s functionality” critical areas “without improving the government’s fiscal position,” The Atlantic warns.
According to the technocrats, cutting spending is not their motive. Transforming government is.
Atlantic magazine is a leftist biased magazine.
I am all for DOGE dismantling and disabling the Federal government. The Federal government and many of the blue states governments are vampires that suck the economic blood out of us by picking our pockets every year with the threat of jail just so some bureaucrats can get rich off of our hard earned money. In addition, most of our tax dollars go as entitlements to able bodied people who don’t work a day in their lives.
The entitlements have to stop as we cannot afford it anymore. I have NO sympathy for the IRS .The IRS is nothing but a fear mongering, bullying organization . Time will tell if we get something better or worse but we will definitely get something different.
The truth is the government is no longer is useful except for a privileged minority.
The government is now only useful for those who own the assets.
Correct. The more assets you own the more useful the current government will be for that asset owner.
Heading in the wrong direction gratis the growing trade deficit.
Ever rising.
These graphs indicate inflation is not going away.
Revelation 6 : 6
Interesting idea….
Trump announces auto loan interest deductions for American-made cars
President Donald Trump announced Friday a new policy instituting auto loan interest deductions for American-made cars.
“If you buy a car in the United States that’s made in the United States, if it’s manufactured here, when you borrow money, if you borrow money, you have interest payments,” Trump said in the Oval Office.
“We’re gonna let you deduct the interest payments for income tax reasons.”
President Trump first proposed the deduction in October, and it has been compared to the existing interest deduction on mortgages, which allows homeowners to write off a portion of their mortgage interest payments, according to a report.
The report noted that in 2024, Americans would pay an average of $1,332 a year in interest payments after purchasing a new vehicle, and more than 100 million Americans had auto loans when 2025 began.
President Trump discussed the deduction with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) before the announcement and said the “simple” deduction will “more than pay for itself.”
“The truth is that people that are middle-income that buy a car and actually have to borrow money, there gonna now get an interest deduction on their car if it’s made in the United States,” Trump said.
“If it’s made someplace else, that won’t take place.”
That seems like a good idea! Incentives do work. I’m sure American manufacturers would love it, as well as dealerships.
I really like this idea from Trump. It helps USA industry. Before the 1986 Tax reform act(TaxHike) all sorts of interest used to be deductible including credit card interest.
Interest on Auto loans for cars made in USA would incentivize buyers of American cars.
Usually good ideas like this don’t get through congress or some dumb ass judge would rule against it.
Doesn’t apply to used cars. And most working families cannot afford a brand new car. This incentive would only work if the dealers didn’t mark up the prices in the first place. The only people I know that bought new cars were the small business owners that used their forgiven covid relief loan cash to make the purchases.
Once again it looks like Trumpy is changing his mind at the last minute. No tarriffs have been implemented yet and they don’t have to be. The big annoucement on the issue comes this week.
Personally, I would never buy a new car. It is a very bad financial decision for most people, but hey, for those that want to, the incentive is helpful.
But the plebes still buy them.
Perhaps the UofM is cooking the data? There’s no legitimate reason for this spike.
The Trump administration’s continuing barrage of tariff threats, as well as the Republican president’s looming deadline for automakers next week, sent investors running for the exits again on Friday. With just one session left until the end of a quarter that’s set to be the worst for the S&P 500 since 2022, the gauge slid another 2%.
It also didn’t help that the latest data showed US consumer sentiment tumbled to a more than two-year low while long-term inflation expectations jumped to a 32-year high as American anxiety over Trump’s handling of the economy continues to build.
The final March sentiment index declined to 57 from 64.7 a month earlier, according to the University of Michigan. The latest reading was below both the 57.9 preliminary number and the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.1% over the next five to 10 years, the data released Friday showed. That’s the highest since—wait for it—1993.
Consumers also see costs rising 5% over the next 12 months, the highest since 2022. But even more foreboding is what Americans see for the country’s jobs market. For years, the US has left the rest of the post-pandemic world behind with low employment levels not seen since the 1960s, when Richard Nixon was president. “Notably,” said Joanne Hsu, director of the Michigan survey, “two-thirds of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest reading since 2009.”
I have tenant turnover coming up in two of my single family detached properties out in the rural area of Virginia. The tenants have been in less than 2 years. The annual rent roll will increase by at least $7,000 a year from higher rent on just two properties.
The only collapse I see is the ongoing one that renters are suffering.
Core PCE data coming in slightly higher. Headline number as expected.
Personal income higher and personal spending is lower than consensus. People are slightly reluctant to spend, given the kayfabe. Overall, not bond bullish, but the reaction is subdued….
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
Act: 0.4% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.3%
Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
Act: 2.8% Cons: 2.7% Prev: 2.7%
PCE Price index (YoY) (Feb)
Act: 2.5% Cons: 2.5% Prev: 2.5%
PCE price index (MoM) (Feb)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.3%
Personal Income (MoM) (Feb)
Act: 0.8% Cons: 0.4% Prev: 0.7%
Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb)
Act: 0.4% Cons: 0.5% Prev: -0.3%
Real Personal Consumption (MoM) (Feb)
Act: 0.1% Cons: Prev: -0.6%
Below is an excerpt from a Bloomberg article this morning. Just a comment here. I get the whole geopolitical dynamic can be viewed as kayfabe when we take a helicopter view, but what does Carney and the Canadian federal government think when Canada runs a 50 billion dollar a year trade surplus?
What’s driving the Democrats crazy down in the states is the fact that Trump’s entire platform is popular with the vast majority of Americans. Even the die-hard blue Democrats in the cities are tired of illegal immigration. Economically speaking, the vast majority of Americans are tired of being the doormat to the world. I’m talking 80% number approval.
____________
Donald Trump’s tariff campaign is creating more inflation worries. With Americans already stressed about rising car prices, the Fed’s Susan Collins weighed in to say it’s “inevitable” the new levies will boost inflation. In other signs of trouble ahead, Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada will have “a fundamentally different relationship with the United States” as a result of the tariff action, though he declined to specify new retaliatory moves. And the evolving trade war is freezing Chinese investment in Mexico.
Hard to say what they are thinking, but the libtards here love the guy. Parliament is prorogued so all discussion has effectively been stopped until after the election. One thing is certain, Carney is a master of duplicity.
I remember something he said at some climate conference – there will be cars as far as the eye can see but no gasoline to run them. Maybe we will all be driving Bennet Buggies again, that will be fundamentally different.
I know for certainty how wretched Carney is, he was the head of the Bank of England AND Bank of Canada. Enough said on that!
I wonder how the scriptures would look if the pagan Romans and Jews didn’t help formulate it back in the 4th century. I wonder if there would have been the 18 silent years of Jesus’s life. Upon reading the Gospels, it’s clearly evident that most of the people who met Jesus during his ministry didn’t recognize him as a long-standing resident of the area. Where did he go? So many secrets the Catholic Church holds over the world’s masses. By withholding and re-translating, the Catholic Church does more damage to Jesus’s name than promotes it.
I wonder if there would be more of a connection to the actual lost sheep of the House of Israel. I wonder what the Catholic Church hierarchy destroyed over the past 1700 years. So many questions, but there is ample extra biblical evidence to answer these questions.
I wonder about the mistranslations in Genesis, especially in the KJV. I wonder. I wonder what the world would look like if the Jew communists who are descended from Cain and whom Jesus railed against weren’t equated with God’s chosen. I wonder. The world would be a Utopia, but that is not meant to be.
The Laodicean Christians are looking to the nation state of Israel and the Jews around the world as someone who needs to convert. They believe that once that happens the end time can come. But these foolish Christians equate the Jews as physical Israelites.
The world’s greatest deception occurs right in the church pews. Jesus wasn’t complaining against physical Israelites, he was railing against Satan’s descendants in human form. The big Universal Church deception.
Here is the first part of William Blakes verse from poem and then famously the song God save the King. Their is some evidence that Joseph if Arimathaea traveled to England with a young man who was the Lamb of YHVH!
And did those feet in ancient time
Walk upon Englands mountains green:
And was the holy Lamb of God,
On Englands pleasant pastures seen!
And did the Countenance Divine,
The evil Catholic Church hierarchy could not admit who lived in northern and western Europe. They could not admit who these people were. If the Catholic Church hierarchy did, their whole Ponzi scheme of scaring the crap out of the people with lies would fall apart. The whore church is the end time harlot.
They changed the word, the law and the times. The woman who rides the beast.
On the contrary. No other Church has defended the white European peoples and called out the dark races for being cursed more than the Roman Catholic Church has.
Race realism within a Catholic context – pt. II
https://fitzinfo.net/2025/01/21/race-realism-within-a-catholic-context-pt-ii/
The song is Jerusalem. My mistake.
Some stories say that Jesus went to Tibet and India during his teenage years to learn from the spiritual masters over there . There are other stories that Jesus also went to Europe, the British Isles, and Ireland during those intervening years of his life that the Bible does not mention.
I believe Jesus went to the far east
, Europe, and Britain between the time he was twelve to the time he started preaching at 30 years old. He did a lot of traveling and learning from the spiritual masters in those intervening years.
I have read Buddhist literature in the past and I see some remarkable similarities between the Buddhist literature and what Jesus preached. There are also differences such as the Buddhist belief in reincarnation and Buddhists don’t really acknowledge a supreme God.
What Jesus spoke about and preached has very little to do with Buddhism. The whole fundamental framework of Buddhism is based on something entirely different. In that regard, it’s closer to Hinduism, from which Buddhism was based. The entire message of Jesus actually contradicted greatly from what Gautama Buddha espoused.
There is plenty of extra biblical evidence that Jesus, Paul, Simon the Zealot, and Joseph of Arimathea all visited what we would call today Britain.
The only extra biblical evidence of any of the apostles going east into the Orient pertains to Thomas. It is theorized Thomas was killed by the Hindus in India. They were not receptive to his message.
I would have to second this! Matt 15:24 I was sent only to the lost sheep of Israel.”
Speaking of hedging against uncertainty and government foolishness… if this clown gets elected watch for further economic stagnation and massive loss in purchasing power
https://x.com/MelissaLMRogers/status/1905339001508430404
I am not disagreeing with you, but I think it’s a lock. Carney was put up to make something happen – whatever that will be. He was always and everywhere an employee, well paid but an employee.
It’s funny that you call him a clown, I see him more as a carnie – not just a clever name. Kind of like a midway hooker running the ring toss game. His campaign gets to use Mike Meyers in his Waynes World persona, the opposition missed a golden opportunity to use him in his Austin Powers persona:
https://youtu.be/ZXRfnIfFYFI?feature=shared
I also think he shares a resemblance with Jim Leahy, supervisor of Sunnyvale Trailer Park. This is Mark Carneys post election acceptance speech in my mind:
https://youtu.be/xer32BmkORk?feature=shared
Brett, you can hear the winds of the whispering shit.
Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders signs over-the-counter ivermectin sales bill into law
https://www.kark.com/news/politics/gov-sarah-huckabee-sanders-signs-over-the-counter-ivermectin-sales-bill-into-law/
Bill Gates says AI will replace doctors, teachers within 10 years — and claims humans won’t be needed ‘for most things’
https://nypost.com/2025/03/27/business/bill-gates-said-ai-will-replace-doctors-teachers-within-10-years/
My knee jerk reaction is, 10 years! I wouldn’t worry about 10 years more!
I’ve been telling my wife for a couple years now that her job will be replaced by an AI chatbot. She’s a school psychologist and I tell her that her entire industry will be automated. Just like with doctors. People will sit in front of a screen and choose the type of person they want to talk to. A bunch of fat Haitian ladies will take blood and other things, while the sad sack patient discusses his or her bioweapon caused diseases with an AI chat bot.
Perhaps pastors and priests will be replaced with AI chatbots.
Yes, automation of many positions will be here and sooner than 10 years! They already have call in therapy instead of being their in person for example. AI is a game changer. As Elon, says, it’s conversing with demons!
Suddenly, Jim Kramer (Mad Money) is shilling for Trump. I don’t have access to the complete article but here is the headline link.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/27/jim-cramer-i-hate-free-trade-it-has-wrecked-small-towns-across-us.html
This guy usually shills for the libtards.
Of course, he’s correct. I wonder why the sudden shift. Free trade was all about gutting the industrial base domestically and shifting it overseas. It was designed to build up the entire world and tear down the West. There’s a reason why small town America has three-bed two-bath houses selling for $150,000.
For once Jim Kramer is actually right that free trade destroyed small town USA. Free trade as promoted since the late 70s just like Communism is the biggest con job. First of all it was not really free trade for the USA. We allowed every import under the sun to cross our borders unfettered while our trading partners still blocked US exports to their countries under the guise of regulations while others overtly maintained tariffs on our goods. Our government sold the USA down the river for the last 40 years including Carter, Reagan, and the Bushes never mind the Democrat presidents. If Americans woke up to this the current government would be long gone but nobody will do anything because Americans are too far gone.
Henry Ford quote, It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.
He knew a thing or two about who runs banking, etc. He wrote the International Jew!
Bingo. I remember Clinton signing the trade agreements giving China “most favored nation” trading status. Goldman Sax partners behind him. I knew it was bad deal as a kid.
I like your calm and collected outlook. We need that. The key is DO NOT act on fear. These things always blow over. I think stock prices, especially larger corporations will hold up in the long run.
I am very optimistic that that Jesus Christ will arrive soon. I see biblical events happening in much more rapid pace. The behavior from those up top on the SoS food chain indicate that they see big events on the horizon and that is why they are pushing drastic changes down the line. We are seeing a lot more action in the last five years like the Covid scare, Ukraine war, Trump selection, DOGE, Trump tariffs, and Trump shifting the World political order. Many of these events are smokescreens against much bigger events.
“Yes, the world is one big conspiracy, but sometimes stock movement is just the normal routine and is a result of behavioral and economic psychology.” – That is definitely true. And when that does not happen, it is played, so to speak, among banks/institutions to lower or pump certain stocks/Indexes. Sometimes it happens for a day or for a few days/weeks. At occasions, things don’t turn out like that, when competing institutions play against each other. It is a travesty.
Forget stocks. This old man invests for passive income via alternative vehicles like BDC’s, CEF’s, preferred shares, baby bonds, mREITS, private equity, etc. My 230k rollover IRA generates close to 3k a month in dividends. Even better I reinvest a portion of the dividends (DRIP) and over time the income stream grows to beat inflation. It all helps supplement my other income so I can maintain my standard of living.
Is there risk involved? Sure, all investments carry risk, however I believe the risk taken with alternatives is significantly less than those in traditional stocks. Don’t count on Wall Street to promote these vehicles. They want the suckers in stocks.
Price data slightly lower than expected. Bond friendly. Another worse than expected good trades deficit for last month. Perhaps there’s some frontrunning going on in anticipation of higher tariffs. But not a good trend overall and will once again take a ding out of current GDP estimates.
PCE Prices (Q4)
Act: 2.4% Cons: 2.4% Prev: 1.5%
Core PCE Prices (Q4)
Act: 2.60% Cons: 2.70% Prev: 2.20%
Corporate Profits (QoQ) (Q4)
Act: 5.9% Cons: Prev: -0.4%
GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
Act: 2.4% Cons: 2.3% Prev: 3.1%
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)
Act: 2.3% Cons: 2.4% Prev: 1.9%
GDP Sales (Q4)
Act: 3.3% Cons: 3.2% Prev: 3.3%
Goods Trade Balance (Feb)
Act: -147.91B Cons: -134.60B Prev: -155.57B
Initial Jobless Claims
Act: 224K Cons: 225K Prev: 225K
Continuing Jobless Claims
Act: 1,856K Cons: 1,890K Prev: 1,881K
Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
Act: 224.00K Cons: Prev: 228.75K
Real Consumer Spending (Q4)
Act: 4.0% Cons: 4.2% Prev: 3.7%
Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Feb)
Act: 0.1% Cons: Prev: 0.5%
Wholesale Inventories (MoM) (Feb)
Act: 0.3% Cons: 0.7% Prev: 0.8%
Of course, the race specific bioweapons aren’t causing cancer, research now indicates our chewing gum is causing cancer…..
Scientists find link between chewing gum and cancer and urge people to do one thing to lower the risks
Chewing gum lovers could inadvertently be consuming up to the equivalent of 15 credit cards worth of plastic every year
https://www.unilad.com/news/health/chewing-gum-link-cancer-science-538558-20250325
Suddenly, the activities we have been doing for 100 or more years are causing cancer or heart attacks. The increased heart attacks they attribute to more stress. Suddenly moderate alcohol consumption is causing cancer. This is definitely a coverup of the real culprit which are the Covid vaccines.
I guess we would call it a sort of limited hangout. These authorities know that cancer is increasing tremendously and they can no longer hide the obvious, so they placate the masses with red herrings.
You count on the fact that the Liers Club will never come clean.
Thus, the name!
Everyone’s full of plastic they say.
So if you sand a door does you brain end up full of paint and wood?
If you sweep a floor does the dust end up in your brain?
Why is the body able to avoid all sorts of other particles, but not plastic? There’s a Russian scientist who says plastic dust is just like any other dust and the human body can easily handle it. We are exposed to huge amounts of dust every day and nothing happens. He says plastic is no different.
Most of the lies we are told these says are all scientific lies. Is this a lie too?
Gold futures are telling us something. 3200 soon.