Budget blueprint; a gift to asset owners
A budget blueprint has been cleared by the Republican-led House of Representatives, the first step towards advancing President Donald Trump’s plan to cut taxes as well as increase funding for border security and the military. The proposal was passed by a narrow 217-215, with all Republicans but one voting for the measure and Democrats rejecting it (one Democrat did not vote).
Plan details: The budget plan calls for $4.5T in tax cuts, which would include the renewal of the cuts Trump introduced in 2017 that are set to expire at the end of the year. The plan also calls for cutting federal spending by $2T over ten years. To note, it instructs the Energy and Commerce Committee – which oversees Medicaid and Medicare – to find at least $880B in cuts. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has insisted that the budget proposal aims to root out “fraud, waste and abuse” in Medicaid.
As for the national debt, which is currently more than $36.5T, the House proposal calls for raising the debt ceiling by $4T. According to think tank Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, the debt limit will likely be reached in November 2026 even with the $4T increase. In that case, the Treasury Department would have to resort to extraordinary measures to pay government obligations.
What’s next: The House vote is viewed as procedural, as the Senate last week voted for a contrasting budget blueprint. The Senate proposal does not include tax cuts or raising the debt ceiling. The House and Senate will need to reach an agreement to draft a legislation, which could take months and further divide lawmakers. The current government funding is set to expire on March 14.
Price data higher than expected. GDP data coming in okay. Jobless claims the big rise and more than consensus.
Core PCE Prices (Q4)
Act: 2.70% Cons: 2.50% Prev: 2.20%
PCE Prices (Q4)
Act: 2.4% Cons: 2.3% Prev: 1.5%
Real Consumer Spending (Q4)
Act: 4.2% Cons: 4.2% Prev: 3.7%
Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan)
Act: 3.1% Cons: 2.0% Prev: -1.8%
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan)
Act: 0.0% Cons: 0.2% Prev: 0.1%
Durables Excluding Defense (MoM) (Jan)
Act: 3.5% Cons: Prev: -1.8%
Durables Excluding Transport (MoM) (Jan)
Act: 0.0% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.1%
Goods Orders Non Defense Ex Air (MoM) (Jan)
Act: 0.8% Cons: 0.3% Prev: 0.2%
GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
Act: 2.3% Cons: 2.3% Prev: 3.1%
GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4)
Act: 2.4% Cons: 2.2% Prev: 1.9%
GDP Sales (Q4)
Act: 3.2% Cons: 3.2% Prev: 3.3%
Initial Jobless Claims
Act: 242K Cons: 222K Prev: 220K
Continuing Jobless Claims
Act: 1,862K Cons: 1,870K Prev: 1,867K
Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.
Act: 224.00K Cons: Prev: 215.50K
It seems sensible heads are prevailing. At least, Trump is willing to change his positions, depending on what his constituents say. I suspect the Russian ruble is strengthening as global investors warm up to the thought that there will be a wind down of hostilities, with which Trump may use as a rapprochement with Putin to curtail sanctions against Russia… At least that’s the consensus….
Trump’s adjustment on Ukraine sends the right message to Putin
Post Editorial Board
Bravo to President Trump for his course correction on Ukraine — it could be the first step on the road to lasting peace.
On Wednesday, Trump confirmed he’d be sitting down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington Friday to discuss an end to the war and sign the long-awaited mineral-rights deal.
That’s a welcome change, after a couple of weeks of back-and-forth sniping between the two leaders, with our prez even saying Ukraine “should never have started” the war and calling Zelensky a “dictator.”
Ukraine pumping out kamikaze drones for as little as $300 – and they can destroy tanks: ‘This is modern warfare’
Vladimir Putin, Russia’s actual dictator, was no doubt licking his chops seeing the leader of the Free World (who’s also out to forge a peace settlement) bash his opponent on the world stage.
So it’s a very good thing, for Ukraine and the West at large, that Trump seems to now be listening to his better angels.
Meeting face-to-face with Zelensky before any coming Putin sitdown matters: It signals to Moscow that Washington is still willing to protect Kyiv’s interests.
Trump says US will try to get Ukraine as much land back ‘as possible’ — but Zelensky can ‘forget about’ NATO
And that there’s not as much daylight between the White House and our ally as the Kremlin might have hoped.
As Trump was saying weeks ago, Putin needs an end to hostilities: His economy’s starting to fall apart, he’s running out of cannon fodder — and he doesn’t want to become even more dependent on China.
Letting Vlad know he’s “going to have to” make concessions, as Trump said Wednesday, drives that deeper reality home.
Plus, the mineral deal being inked is far better than the earlier talk of one aiming to fleece war-torn Ukraine for 50% of its revenue from all from natural resources, ports and infrastructure indefinitely as retroactive “payback” for US military aid.
Though it comes with no explicit security guarantees (Trump still wants Europe to start pulling its weight on defense), this deal would tie American interests to Ukraine’s welfare, which raises the stakes of any future Kremlin aggression.
Some American workers would likely be on the ground to help with mineral extraction and processing, and as Trump put it: “Nobody’s going to be messing around with our people when we’re there.”
Ukraine and the United States being on the outs only serves Putin’s interests.
By extending an olive branch to Zelensky, Trump is proving he can put America first and do the right thing.
That meeting went off the rails. Zelensky was kicked out, and it looks like Trump is going to negotiate with Putin without Zelensky!
Zelensky will pay a heavy price! It will be heavier than what was originally offered and he will wish he took it!
Trump is certainly not a diplomat. I honestly couldn’t watch it all. Zelensky should have at least put on a suit and tie. Diplomats are able to look past this stuff and there certainly was no diplomacy anywhere.
Trump is trying to impress Putin.
Trump to End Chevron License in Venezuela in Blow to Maduro
(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump said he plans to revoke Chevron Corp.’s oil license to operate in Venezuela, threatening to torpedo the nation’s slow economic recovery.
“We are hereby reversing the concessions that Crooked Joe Biden gave to Nicolás Maduro, of Venezuela, on the oil transaction agreement,” Trump wrote in a social media post. He cited the electoral conditions in Venezuela and the country’s failure to take back migrants from the US as quickly as it promised.
The move represents an intensification of US restrictions on the South American nation after Maduro’s contested reelection and a sweeping crackdown on his opponents. And Trump is promising to hit where it hurts most: the economy, at a time when almost 80% of citizens say they feel frustrated and disappointed following Maduro’s inauguration last month, according to pollster Meganalisis.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-revoking-venezuela-oil-license-193555113.html
I have noticed front month gasoline has been $0.25/gallon higher than spot for the last two weeks – normally that has translated to a rise at the pump within 4-5 days but not this time. Diesel futures are down which is good for our business but at the same time I see it in the general economy around here very acutely – everything is stagnating. Gasoline rising that much while diesel dropping is new to me, nothing is normal or predictable anymore.
Of course, this young familiar actress dies of “natural causes” after a liver transplant. Another beautiful Caucasian woman bites the dust of “natural causes” at 39. She was found dead in her nice apartment by her mother.
‘Buffy’ and ‘Gossip Girl’ actress Michelle Trachtenberg dead at 39
February 26, 2025, 1:13 PM
Michelle Trachtenberg, an actress best known for her roles in “Buffy the Vampire Slayer” and “Gossip Girl,” has died at age 39.
https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Culture/buffy-gossip-girl-actress-michelle-trachtenberg-dead-39/story?id=119215091&utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us
Any relation to Joshua Trachtenberg, author of “The Devil and the Jews” ?
Naturally, why would one ask for a 4 trillion dollar increase unless it was going to be used?
US Mortgage Rates Decline to 6.88%, Lowest Level This Year
Mortgage rates track Treasury yields, which have fallen in the past week.
(Bloomberg) — US mortgage rates dropped last week to the lowest level this year, but not enough to spur a rebound lending activity.
The contract rate on a 30-year mortgage declined 5 basis points to 6.88% in the week ended Feb. 21, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday.
Mortgage rates track Treasury yields, which have fallen in the past week as investors seek safe havens amid a selloff in stocks and oil markets. Economic data have also contributed to the recent drop in yields, including weak January retail sales and an uptick in consumers’ long-run inflation views to the highest since 1995.
Even so, borrowing costs are still elevated — as are home prices — and weighing on lending activity. MBA’s gauge of refinancings fell 3.6%, while its index applications for home purchases barely rose.
The MBA survey, which has been conducted weekly since 1990, uses responses from mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The data cover more than 75% of all retail residential mortgage applications in the US.
The markets are rewarding the Russian ruble during these Ukrainian peace negotiations. If a bona fide settlement comes to fruition, investors will look to Russia with further interest. We can observe the strength of the Russian ruble in anticipation of a substantial change from over the past three years.
I’m certain that Putin is observing the nascent strength of the ruble with particular interest.