Let me count the ways the Federal Reserve is still the most dovish it’s ever been in its history
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-Why are longer dated bond yields really rising? Is it inflation in the system? Could it be something else? Perhaps there is a growing loss of confidence in the central banking managers and Treasury decisions makers.
-Why is the Fed really cutting rates with the GDP estimates still running north of 3%?
-The Fed has effectively guaranteed the entire fixed income market against marked-to-market losses
-The Fed has enabled the UST to generate many trillions more in UST securities that are subsequently used by large investors and the owners of those newly minted Treasuries to leverage out and buy up other assets, such as stocks, sports teams, and your neighbor’s house.
-If the Fed was so restrictive, why are asset prices continuing to escalate?
-The amount of interest income being earned by economic stakeholders is breathtaking… and rising.
-The horses are out of the barn; despite the Fed’s desperate attempt to help lower the UST’s WACC, longer dated yields continue to push higher, negating any hope of lower interest outlays.
-The Fed has effectively guaranteed all bank deposits
-My predictions on asset prices. My predictions for bond yields (hint: I see a 40% chance of mortgage rates touching upwards of 10% during Trump’s presidency)
Stone, what’s your thoughts on Junior minors? They have been in a waste land fit a decade. When flows enter that space there has been explosive up moves in the past.
https://youtu.be/GuVdWi3kBFU?si=mrdskMml2U95fYzy
Imagine if the government published the true rate of inflation. It would clearly demonstrate that GDP growth was in contraction.
To wit, ISM Manufacturing data continue its contraction, while prices paid increase above consensus. Pipeline price data do not look good for bonds…
ISM Manufacturing Employment (Dec)
Act: 45.3 Cons: 48.0 Prev: 48.1
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index (Dec)
Act: 52.5 Cons: Prev: 50.4
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec)
Act: 49.3 Cons: 48.2 Prev: 48.4
ISM Manufacturing Prices (Dec)
Act: 52.5 Cons: 51.5 Prev: 50.3
Right, double digit inflation in USA and worse world wide! Food prices are only going to get worse. Get to know your local farmers and livestock folks to secure healthy food before its to late.
Stone, where do you see the Cdn. dollar going this year? It has been dropping since Trump made tariff threats. Trudeau may be booted out of power this fall (2025 Cdn. federal election).
Investors north of the border are getting hammered hard as the CAD is trading near 5-year lows. Of course, Canadians who have invested in the United States are seeing superior returns when translated back to their currency.
It all has to do with your prime minister and his Obama type of philosophy. He needs to go and will go. As much as I’m not a fan of Trump’s personal affairs, I prefer him over the alternative. I suspect the Obama type of governing philosophy has reached its expiration date and that includes its residue up north. Trudeau will go and when he does go, there will be a big rally in the CAD. Perhaps down to the 130 level from the current 144.
Obummer and Turdeau(Fidelito) have alot in common as both have instituted failed and incompetent policies that don’t help the public. Britain’s Keir Starmer comes across as their Obummer. I agree that the Obama brand has expired and Biden and Turdeau have expedited its expiration.
His name is Justin Castro. Get it right lol.
Thank you for the podcast. I really appreciate you taking the time to help us out!
I think the good Lord is giving us a warning for the USA as lighting struck the Capitol building in DC, the Washington Monument, and the Empire state building in NYC all on New Years Eve.
https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/national-news/empire-state-building-nyc-us-capital-washington-monument-all-struck-by-lightning-last-night
Happy New Year Stone.
Thank you for the podcast. You have explained very well the reasons why the 10 year yield remains stubbornly high. I see more consolidation of wealth so the SoS can tighten their control. Masses are much easier to control when they are poor and have nothing but a paycheck to paycheck job. Masses are harder to control when they can be independently wealthy.
I think the Trump administration will take a different tack to consolidate wealth than the Democrats.
Trump and Elon will slash the government and lay off a lot of government workers. They will also cut off entitlements to the poor such as cut off or restrict welfare, food stamps, social security disability, and medicaid. This cutback will further impoverish the masses as they will get much less government handouts. Government jobs are a form of handouts as government jobs are a lot less demanding. In turn, more low wage jobs will be created as businesses get their tax cuts and tax incentives. The budget deficit will not go down but expenditures will be redirected to business tax incentives. Effectively, the masses will all be turned into economic slaves.
We will get more political freedom with Trump but for most of the masses they will have much less economic freedom.
Never the less, rents and stock prices will continue to rise in the above mentioned scenario. I have relatives who have no assets because they made poor life choices. Heaven help them.
Thanks for the podcast! It seems the pattern will stay in place so that the 1%, central banks and so on can accumulate assets while the serfs will have to get used to a lower standard of living. No doubt, they will take this to a certain, not very far off, point so they can crush the old (1913) system and begin the final mark system.
If the 10 year Treasury blows past 5% on its way to 6% this year, won’t that cause a serious lack of confidence in the Fed and the current system? Do you think that is likely? It seems like the dominos would start falling by then.
The growing loss of confidence, caused by the continual feverish consolidation of wealth before the force majeure, will keep forcing longer bond yields to push higher.
The Bible doesn’t talk about an economic collapse in Revelation, at least in the traditional sense. The scriptures illustrate an end time economic system that will crush those who don’t own the assets.
The only solution for Russia and Putin will be to carry out an offensive military strike against the West, directly along the lines of Ezekiel 38 and 39.
I do not see any other alternative for Russia. Up until that point, there will be no collapses. This is why the powers are using the Federal Reserve to extract as much wealth as possible until the bombs start dropping sometime after the second half of 2027.
LETTER: Housing shortages and illegal immigrants
Dusty Mac Las Vegas
(Las Vegas Review-Journal)
There’s a housing shortage in Southern Nevada? Costs for housing keep rising? Homelessness is up 18 percent? What? Hmmm. Well … I would guess common sense and math applies to the 8 million illegal aliens that have entered the United States since Joe Biden walked into the White House less than four years ago.
There are 48 contiguous states. Rounding of course, 8 million divided by 48 comes to about 167,000 illegal entrants per state. They need housing if equally spread across the 48 states. But they aren’t equally spread and are primarily in larger cities, such as Las Vegas. Let the bidding for the apartment, house or tent begin.
Do you have an empty wallet or pocketbook because rent or mortgage payments (when you can find housing) eat up more than 40 percent of your income? What did you expect?
Also, thank you, lord, for the cap on property tax increases that the voters help solidify some years back before all the liberals moved into the valley.
Judging by the ongoing collapse of the Russian ruble, there is serious speculation that Putin’s days are numbered….
Russia rocked as huge freight train explodes near Moscow in fresh blow to Putin
Vladimir Putin faces a loss of resources
A dramatic video has captured the moment a railway on the outskirts of Moscow was rocked by a massive explosion, destroying freight train cars used for logistics by the Russians, as per Ukrainian Security Officials.
The explosion occurred in the settlement of Voskresensk, Moscow Region, in the early hours of December 27, according to the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (GUR), which also shared the footage.
Russia is deadlocked in a conflict with Ukraine, though allies are calling for progress within the war.
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A statement from GUR clarified: “The aggressor state was using them to provide logistics for the Russian occupation army.”
It added: “The scale of the damage inflicted on the aggressor is being established.”
The statement further read:
“Judging by the fervour of Russian propaganda, which, in an attempt to hide the consequences of the rumble, is lying about the alleged absence of a fire at the Voskresensk railway depot, the Kremlin leaders’ fear of internal resistance to the Putin regime and loss of control within the country is seriously increasing.”
Voskresensk was the site of the explosion
Since the onset of Vladimir Putin’s invasion, Ukraine has initiated a series of targeted efforts to degrade Russia’s war machine, with a particular focus on critical infrastructure such as railways.
The rail network plays a crucial role in Russia’s logistics, enabling the movement of troops, equipment, and supplies across vast distances.
To disrupt these supply lines, Ukrainian forces have utilized precision strikes with drones and missiles, causing significant logistical challenges for the Russian military.
This focus on rail infrastructure is part of a wider strategy to undermine Russia’s ability to maintain its offensive.
The obliteration of supply routes has left Moscow dependent on more vulnerable and less efficient modes of transportation, thereby increasing the pressure on its military resources.
Moreover, the disruption of logistical networks has created a domino effect, causing delays in reinforcements and restricting the resupply of frontline units.
The systematic dismantling of Russia’s war machinery underscores Ukraine’s determination and resourcefulness in employing asymmetrical tactics against a numerically superior foe.