Mr Stone, I would value your assessment of this article regarding the US collapse everyone’s expecting.
Federal government bankruptcy?
I guess once the US blows up enough goyim it’s time to pull the plug and let them “dry up and blow away”.
Obviously, they haven’t done the required damage yet however.
Bob
The United States government will never declare bankruptcy. What this article states is the same stuff I’ve read in the alt-media since the 90s.
Only governments whose external sovereign debt is denominated in other currencies have the possibility of default. We observed this phenomenon in Latin America in the 1980s and we saw this with the Asian tigers of the ’90s. I also know that Argentina’s current government faces some of these issues, because a majority of its outstanding sovereign debt is denominated in foreign currencies.
The Federal Reserve absorbs all of the necessary debt needed to keep the Treasury market moving forward. The vast majority of US Treasury debt is held internally and all of it is denominated in US dollars that become ever softer by the day.
Even if all the foreigners dumped their Treasuries, the FED would step in like they have been doing since 2008 when QE was introduced. The FED steps in and guarantees virtually everything now. The thought of a Federal bankruptcy is as remote as Pope Francis criticizing homosexuals.
In addition, any net interest income earned by the Federal Reserve is remitted back to the US Treasury. This phenomenon in essence, creates a closed financing loop and would mirror the mechanism currently in operation in Japan. In this instance, an optimal theoretical situation for the USG would be for the Federal Reserve to own all of the outstanding Treasury debt.
When I complain about QE in its current state, I only remark about a profligate government spending scheme that results in higher market-neutral interest rates and rising interest payments. QE can still exist forever, it’s just that it will cause excess inflation growth now. Despite rhetoric to the contrary, the Federal Reserve can expand its balance sheet forever.
The thought of national bankruptcy is silly, and I point the reader to the value of the USDX as proof. The US has already been consuming more than 100% of the world’s net savings rate since 2008. We’re still here and the asset owners get wealthier by the day.
Inflation and suppressed bond yields is a recipe for success; for those in the 90th percentile of balance sheet wealth. Nothing is changing. I previously have calculated that the neutral Fed funds rate is at least 4%. Thus, current Fed monetary policy is actually somewhat dovish and not restrictive.
This DOGE stuff is nonsense and is solely meant for the profane Trump supporters to consume. Once in office, Trump will spill even more red ink… all the way to the force majeure.
Putin denigrates the dollar as a reserve, openly discusses Bitcoin as a replacement, and doesn’t even mention gold as an alternative. Vladimir Putin as the Soviet Party Chairman is as controlled as any Western politician. He doesn’t mention gold, because his handlers who also own the Bank of Russia forbid him.
_____________
Russia’s Putin questions the need for dollar forex reserves, touts bitcoin
By Reuters
December 4, 2024 9:56 AM EST
MOSCOW, Dec 4 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday questioned the need to hold state reserves in foreign currencies since they could easily be confiscated for political reasons, saying that domestic investment of such reserves was more attractive.
Western countries froze about $300 billion of Russian reserves, accumulated from windfall energy revenues, at the start of the Ukraine war in 2022. Discussions are ongoing among G7 countries on how these funds could be used to support Ukraine.
“A legitimate question: why accumulate reserves if they can be lost so easily?” Putin said in remarks to an investment conference. He suggested that investment of state savings into infrastructure, logistics, science and education was more reliable than holding them in foreign assets.
Putin said the current U.S. administration was undermining the role of the U.S dollar as the reserve currency in the global economy by using it for political purposes, forcing many countries to turn to alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies.
“For example, bitcoin, who can prohibit it? No one,” Putin said. He added that development of new payment technologies was inevitable, due to their lower costs and reliability.
Warren Buffett is looking foolish selling off a majority of his AAPL holdings. His average selling price is probably about $70 below the current bid. His dumping of BAC was also poorly timed and seemed almost desperate. While Buffett was selling BAC, the stock couldn’t catch a break. But after the dust settled, BAC is now up another $7 a share.
Bond Traders Position for US Treasury Market to Extend Rebound
(Bloomberg) — Bond traders are positioning for the US Treasuries market to extend its recent advance, showing confidence that yields will continue to pull back from the peaks hit after Donald Trump’s election victory.
JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s weekly survey on Tuesday showed that its clients’ have boosted their long positions in US government debt to the highest in a year, dropping what had been a neutral stance toward the securities. The change follows a rally over the past two weeks that was aided by strong demand at the Treasury’s note auctions.
The sentiment shift was also seen in the futures market, where traders entered into new positions tied to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate and the fed funds rate that will pay off if rates keep coming down. Trading volumes jumped after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Monday said he’s inclined to vote for another rate reduction at the Dec. 18 meeting. The swaps market is pricing in a roughly two-thirds chance that the central bank will cut its benchmark by a quarter point at that gathering.
The trading activity signals confidence that the bond market is stabilizing from the selloff triggered by speculation that Trump’s tax-cut and tariff plans would rekindle inflation and slow the Fed’s rate reductions. Through last week, traders were betting the market could take another downward turn, with some hedging the risk that 10-year Treasury yields could push back to 4.75%, roughly half a percentage point above where they were Tuesday.
This week’s risk events could still send those wagers into the money, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking Wednesday and the focus shifting to the monthly jobs report Friday.
Here’s a rundown of the latest positioning indicators across the rates market:
JPMorgan Treasury Client Survey
In the week up to Dec. 2 JPMorgan clients added to outright long positions by 6 percentage points, moving out of neutral with shorts unchanged on the week. The all-client outright longs jumped to the biggest since Dec. 11 with the net long position at highest since Nov. 4.
Treasury Options Premium Back to Neutral
The cost to hedge bond-market moves in either direction has become more balanced over the past week. The demand for downside protection, targeting rising 10-year Treasury yields has eased over the past week after a surge in demand for bearish wagers toward the end of November.
CFTC Futures Positioning
Hedge funds aggressively covered short positions in Treasury futures for the week up to Nov. 26, by an amount of approximately 417,000 10-year note futures equivalents, the largest amount of short covering on net basis seen since Aug. 27. Asset managers unwound long positions over the same period by approximately 265,000 10-year note futures equivalents, the largest amount of long liquidation seen since Aug. 27.
The ignorant and the blind leading the blind. All of the organized churches today are built upon the bedrock of communist Judaism….
Young men leaving traditional churches for ‘masculine’ Orthodox Christianity in droves
https://nypost.com/2024/12/03/us-news/young-men-are-converting-to-orthodox-christianity-in-droves/
It’s a shame. People looking for answers have a difficult time wading through the muck looking for Truth. The Truth is only available from one source, and one Book! Very few know it and discuss it. Matt. 7:14
And there is this also, A recent article in the Wall Street Journal reported that Bible sales in the United States increased by 22% through October 2024, outpacing the overall printbook market’s growth of less than 1%, according to Circana BookScan data. This surge in religious text purchases comes as Americans grapple with economic uncertainties, international conflicts, and election-related anxiety.
Yes, I did see this. There are a lot of people in this world who have been in and out of all of the organized churches and are not getting any answers. The Catholic church is the worst, followed by the Protestant churches. There is no truth left and the priests and pastors are providing no answers for the people. The lost sheep of the House of Israel are suffering greatly in these last days, though it was prophesied that these Laodicean churches would deceive their sheep.
The truth is considered racist, xenophobic, white supremacist, hateful, chauvinistic and misogynist, and arrogant. These lukewarm Christians are leading the more zealous ones astray. The lost sheep are seeking answers and are finally reaching for the Bible. Hopefully, they won’t turn to the Google juice synagogue search algorithms for assistance, but I don’t hold out much hope.
That is an encouraging sign that some people are seeking the truth.
When the two witnesses finally appear, these lost sheep will begin to understand. As of now, they are in the dark.
I can see why men are leaving traditional churches. The mainstream churches denigrate the role of the father as the head of the household while elevating the mother. This is in direct conflict of the Holy Bible which states that the father should be the head of the household and be the ultimate decision maker.
The methodist church that I used to attend as a child has replaced the traditional choir with a “christian” rock band. I just don’t see how rock music can be christian as rock music was originally inspired by Satan. Mainstream churches clearly lead their sheep astray from Jesus.
And the husband as the head of the household is also supposed to be the teacher of Biblical Truth! If he is a novice, he should seek help from those that are seasoned in the Truth, like this blog for instance.
A maternal lineage is talmudic and satanic. According to the Bible and Yahweh, lineage is determined by the seed or the man. In the case of the Bible, man means Adamic man. There’s also Genesis 1 or day six man. These are the Asians, African blacks, Mesoamericans, and Dravidians, etc. but the Bible solely pertains to adamic man.
However, The Book of Revelation does observe all the other forms of humans during the tribulation period. The lost sheep have been committing terrible adulteries through their race mixing and miscegenation. These willfully ignorant fools refuse to understand how horrible a sin this is and that it is totally satanic and against everything the Bible stands for. It allows the Jew synagogue to destroy its opposition.
Any church that observes the maternal side is satanic by definition. It is a church based on Judaism and the Talmud.
Judaism and the Talmud are deception!
And so are all the organized religions that masquerade as Christianity. For modern Christianity and the organized churches, they are houses built on a bedrock of Judaism and spiritual communism.
Exactly!
Amen
Debt to the Penny up $84 billion overnight to $36,171,181,955,284.36….
The Fed can continue rolling off balance sheet assets, but the USG will pay much higher real interest rates to compensate for keeping the charades going.
US Debt Ceiling to Over Complicate Fed’s Balance-Sheet Runoff
(Bloomberg) — The US debt ceiling is once again emerging as the Federal Reserve continues to unwind its balance sheet, putting the central bank in a tough spot — only this time it’s trickier.
The debt limit will be reinstated on Jan. 2, prompting the Treasury Department to deploy a series of extraordinary measures that include spending down its cash pile and reducing the amount of T-bills it issues to preserve its borrowing capacity.
Because the Treasury’s cash balance, known as the Treasury General Account, or TGA, is one of the major liabilities on the Fed’s balance sheet, such measures will boost mainly bank reserves parked at the central bank and demand for the overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility, or RRP. That means markets will be flush with cash as the Fed continues shrinking its own balance sheet in a process known as quantitative tightening, or QT.
Once Congress passes legislation to suspend or lift the debt ceiling, the Treasury will work quickly to rebuild its cash balance, a process that yanks cash out of the financial system. The shifting of money between markets and the government’s checking account risks masking signals that are critical for identifying any strains created by the central bank’s balance-sheet runoff.
“The Fed may be flying blind in monitoring the impact of QT as the debt ceiling starts to pressure TGA balances lower, temporarily increasing reserves in the system,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US interest rate strategy at TD Securities. “This also increases the risk that once the debt ceiling is raised and the TGA sharply increases, reserves are drawn down quickly and lead to outright scarcity.”
Minutes from the central bank’s November gathering showed staff briefed the committee about possible implications of the debt ceiling’s reinstatement.
All this is making it more difficult for market participants and policymakers to determine the end of QT. Two-thirds of respondents to the New York Fed’s Open Market Desk’s Survey of Primary Dealers and Survey of Market Participants expect QT to end in the first or second quarter of 2025, the minutes showed.
During the last debt-limit episode in 2023, the Fed had been running down its balance sheet for less than a year and there was still $2.2 trillion parked in the overnight reverse repo facility — a tool considered a barometer for excess liquidity. Yet, once Congress suspended the ceiling and Treasury rebuilt its cash balance via increased bill issuance, money-market funds fled the RRP. This time around, going into 2025 there’s less than $150 billion there.
That means any rebuild of the TGA will result in a drop in bank reserves. Although the account is currently at $3.23 trillion, a level policymakers consider abundant, market observers are closely tracking the level to assess at what point it will become scarce.
In addition, there’s a greater risk of more volatility because the backdrop of the funding markets is different than last time, according to Morgan Stanley. Since 2023 there’s been a “significant increase” in hedge funds’ long Treasuries positions, with even more collateral sitting outside the Fed and banking system, strategist Martin Tobias wrote in a year-ahead note.
Given that it’s likely the Treasury will have to reduce its bill issuance until the debt cap is raised or suspended, money-market funds will be motivated to park more cash at the RRP despite higher private repo market rates. There were similar frictions in July when dealer balance-sheet constraints and sponsored repo limitations kept usage of the reverse repo facility sticky.
“Capacity constraints, as well as counterparty risk limits have potential to push money market fund cash into the RRP,” impeding the liquidity redistribution process,” Tobias wrote. “This in effect reduces the supply of repo financing at a time when demand” is continuing to increase.
Even as most Wall Street strategists have coalesced around when the Fed balance-sheet unwind should end, it’s been harder to determine when the US government will run out of funds, or the so-called X-date.
Before Donald Trump’s election victory, strategists’ early read placed the X-date at around August 2025. Now, some say it’s more likely that the date will be earlier, sometime in the second quarter, now that Republicans gained control of the White House and Congress.
Still, all of this uncertainty will make the Fed’s ability to gauge the risks of QT on short-term rates all the more challenging. RBC Capital Markets strategists see the central bank halting QT in the second half of 2025, noting that remarks from policymakers suggests the runoff has a ways to go.
Deutsche Bank strategists led by Steven Zeng and Matthew Raskin said policymakers could consider enhanced market monitoring and ensure liquidity backstop tools are ready, further slowing the pace of the runoff, pause QT until the debt-ceiling is resolved or prematurely end the unwind, though they think the latter two options are unlikely.
“Growing the balance sheet is easy,” said Wells Fargo strategist Angelo Manolatos. “Shrinking it is hard.”
Governments run by Non-Adamic men resort to such things…
South Korean president declares martial law, accusing opposition of anti-state activity
SEOUL, South Korea (AP) – South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law Tuesday vowing to eliminate “anti-state” forces as he struggles against an opposition that controls the country’s parliament and which he accuses of sympathizing with communist North Korea.
The surprising move harkens back to an era of authoritarian leaders that the country has not seen since the 1980s, and was immediately denounced by the opposition and by the leader of Yoon’s own conservative party.
Following Yoon’s announcement, South Korea’s military proclaimed that parliament and other political gatherings that could cause “social confusion” would be suspended, according to the government-funded Yonhap news agency.
The military also said that the country’s striking doctors should return to work within 48 hours, Yonhap said. Thousands of doctors have been striking for months over government plans to expand the number of students at medical schools.
It wasn’t immediately clear how long Yoon’s martial law declaration could stand. Under South Korean law, martial law can be lifted with a majority vote in the parliament, where the opposition Democratic Party holds a majority. TV footage showed police officers blocking the entrance of the National Assembly.
The leader of Yoon’s conservative People Power Party, Han Dong-hoon, called the decision to impose martial law “wrong” and vowed to “stop it with the people.” Opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, who narrowly lost to Yoon in the 2022 presidential election, called Yoon’s announcement “illegal and unconstitutional.”
Yoon said during a televised speech that martial law would help “rebuild and protect” the country from “falling into the depths of national ruin.” He said he would “eradicate pro-North Korean forces and protect the constitutional democratic order.”
“I will eliminate anti-state forces as quickly as possible and normalize the country,” he said, while asking the people to believe in him and tolerate “some inconveniences.”
Yoon – whose approval rating has dipped in recent months – has struggled to push his agenda against an opposition-controlled parliament since taking office in 2022.
Yoon’s party has been locked in an impasse with the liberal opposition over next year’s budget bill. The opposition has also been attempting to pass motions to impeach three top prosecutors, including the chief of the Seoul Central District Prosecutors’ Office, in what the conservatives have called a vendetta against their criminal investigations of Lee, who has been seen as the favorite for the next presidential election in 2027 in opinion polls.
Yoon has also been dismissing calls for independent investigations into scandals involving his wife and top officials, drawing quick, strong rebukes from his political rivals. The Democratic Party reportedly called an emergency meeting of its lawmakers following Yoon’s announcement.
Yoon’s move is the first declaration of martial law since the country’s democratization in 1987. The country’s last previous martial law was in October 1979.
Well, that was quick!
$BCTX making waves again. The news continues to remain bullish and the stock manipulation schemes look like they may be coming to an end. Marc Lustig, a 10% owning board member resigned on November 26th, and I suspect it’s because he was tired of the stock manipulation as he publicly proclaimed on the message board. He is now free to engage in any way he sees fit. The stock started rising the day his resignation was announced. All eyes are on BCTX.
A good MSM Fed primer….
Fed’s Powell may have made US monetary policy boring again
December 2, 20246:09 AM EST – Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-may-have-made-us-monetary-policy-boring-again-2024-12-02/
Thanks for the article. I wonder how much longer the fed will be “boring”?
They will be boring until the next manufactured crisis.
Ok, sounds reasonable. The US does not need to default or declare bankruptcy because they can always print more money etc.
On the flip side, could the US declare bankruptcy if it WANTED to? Could they plug the plug on purpose, or is that impossible too?
It appears to me that the money system is so fake they can do whatever they want, but I’m no expert in these matters.
You are saying they don’t NEED to crash it, and I accept that. Are you 100% certain they will never WANT to do it – maybe it could that be a part of the coming Force Majeure? I suppose they could crash it all if they wanted to, so the question is would they want to? Would it further the agenda?
Only a force majeure can end the system. Anything else would not be justifiable. They would be blamed. The Fed has made it clear that short of an alien invasion, they will keep the system operating. Every crisis brings them more control.
For the sake of argument, what would happen to asset prices if doge managed to cut 2 trillion from the federal governments annual budget.
Asset prices of all sorts would face sizeable downward pressure. Especially BTC. Dollars would be in high demand to service all that outstanding dollar denominated debt.
Price inflation would drop as well.
In this case, what would treasuries do? And would being leveraged be a lot worse than it is right now?
Anything that restricts the new supply of Treasuries would be US Treasury bullish. Essentially, a contraction of government spending would decrease aggregate demand and would help lower price inflation growth, and thus, nominal bond yields, all other things being equal.
So, if the Trump regime actually cut $2 trillion in spending I would be more sanguine toward holding longer dated Treasuries and would avoid money market funds over the longer term as the FED could begin to genuinely cut overnight rates in earnest.
We could own longer dated Treasuries under this scenario with the expectation that we could experience capital gains on longer dated Treasuries as bond yields fell.
If we theorize we could see downward asset price pressures from a cut back in federal spending, overlevered investors could be adversely impacted. Looking at it from another angle, if bond yields fell from a cut back in federal spending, investor cost of capital could drop as well.
Now I see Trump may have a crypto czar. He will go CBDC all the way!
Buy all the alt coins you can! LTC looks good as well as the others.
It’s pure and simple. When the government spends less or worse shuts down spending then a lot less money goes into circulation. Less money chasing the same amount of goods results in lower prices and the unit currency buying more.
Raising taxes and holding spending has the same effect as taxes siphon money out of circulation.
All this said, I believe spending will never go down nor taxes will rise due to the sharp economic pain of doing otherwise. Any government that raises taxes and/or cuts spending commits political suicide and very few politicians are willing to do this unless they have no regard for political suicide.
Trump is in his last term and does not care about getting re-elected. I have a hunch he does not care about his fellow Republican political prospects. With that in mind, there could be some real tough love on the way with an economic depression that will stick on the Republicans for years to come and pave the way for a one party socialist banana republic. Hope and pray to the Lord Yahweh that this does not happen and I am wrong. I am just thinking of a possible SoS plan.
Trump was allowed to win for reasons I am still figuring out. The will of the people really does not matter unless it is in line with the SoS.
A perfect example of economic shock is Argentina under Javier Milei. He slashed government spending and fired a lot of government workers.
I agree Trump was allowed to win. Kamala was not a serious offering.
That could be why the dems lost the election on purpose, IMO.
Trump’s blue on the inside, orange on the outside, and red all the way through. Not republican red, but soviet red?
He is entertaining to watch though (except when he gets all nasty about Israel).
Property taxes go up every year. Around 2010 they doubled and now present day since 2009 they have almost tripled, unless the owner has exemptions. I’m sure this has happened in most State Counties across the USA. Look at what your property taxes were in 2009.
Trump didn’t mention BTC very much in his first term and now he’s a BTC carnival barker. I’m surprised he didn’t give Jeff from Dollarvigilante a position on his team. I’m not sure how digital numbers that were pumped up beyond recognition so they can use it as a reserve for the dollar, but apparently the dollar is not backed by anything now. Difficult and tricky to picture in one’s head. It’s something that can go right back down real quick, maybe that’s part of the majure, to help tank the financial apparatus.
I remember when BTC went over $100 and people fell out of there chairs saying it’s way too high now it’ll tank back, but look at how high they pumped it. It’s still not worth anything.
Agreed. Bitcoin and other cryptos are only a program in computers. They are not backed by any assets. The only promise that backs these cryptocurrencies is the limited supply but that can easily be altered. In addition, what happens to these electronic based cryptos when the grid goes down? Most likely poof like when the wife or girlfriend sees the money. Crypto also disappear very easily as accounts get hacked. Most of the crypto economy businesses are ponzi scams or illegal businesses. For all the above mentioned reasons I stay away from crypto.
The DOGE cuts would imply a large number of govt employee layoffs wouldn’t it? So all those people would still be known colloquially as “government employees” when they go on the dole.
It might save some money, but a big chunk of those savings would just be spent on handouts wouldn’t they?
Most government employees hardly work on the job and don’t use their brains much. A lot of government employees have lower IQs than those in the private sector and they probably cannot function in a competitive work environment.
I wouldn’t make the claim that government employees have lower IQs, but government employees tend to be extremely risk-averse. This is why they seek government jobs. Many well-educated and IQ-based intelligent people seek to work in the government. They also tend to be more left than the Gen pop.