For most of this year, US inflation has been on a steady downward trend, fanning hopes that surging prices would give way to falling interest rates.
But as 2025 looms, there are signs that some pockets of inflation are proving more stubborn than expected, prodding economists to ask if this is as good as it gets.
We will get an update on the state of play when a gauge of prices that is closely watched by the Federal Reserve is released on Wednesday. The personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) is expected to have risen 0.2% in October from the prior month and 2.3% from a year ago.
US inflation is proving stubborn and the PCE is forecast to rise in October.
The Fed watches this indicator because it’s generally understood to be more comprehensive than other inflation measures, capturing not only what consumers spend out-of-pocket, but also indirect expenditures, including by third parties and the government.
If this week’s reading comes in as forecast or on the lower side of those expectations, then it will cement views that the great disinflation trend remains broadly intact and the Fed will have room to cut rates when it meets in mid-December.
But a higher reading would stoke the opposite reaction and ignite bets that the Fed has less room to maneuver. That scenario has extra potency given president-elect Donald Trump has promised sweeping tariffs on imported goods, which economists say will pressure inflation. All of which means that if policy makers at the Fed thought the inflation story this year was complicated, just wait until 12 months from now.